Miguel Navascués | The winner of the recent elections, Pedro Sánchez, defined his objective in the previous debates with great precision: to end the increasing inequality in Spain. But inequality is not the main problem in Spain, it does not even have the nature of a problem. To begin, it is not increasing.
Emilio José González González via The Conversation | How many immigrants does Spain need to be able to pay the pensions? To put a figure is easy. The IMF, in an analysis entitled Challenges Beyond Financial Sustainability, concludes that 5.5 million immigrants will be needed between now and 2050, equivalent to 21% of the current population.
Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | All the labour market data in the country are brilliant. Since 2007 it has gone from 40.3 million people in work to 45.2 million in 2019 (45.5 in 2020). In ten years Germany has gone from 8.6% unemployment to 3.1%. There is even a shortage of skilled labour. And its citizens are happier than ever with their quality of life.
One of the key supports for Spain’s economic growth during the recovery has been the strength of international tourism. CaixaBank Research predicts 3.4% growth in tourism-related GDP in 2018, outperforming Spain ’s economy as a whole (2.8% growth). This excellent performance has helped to create jobs: in the four years between Q1 2014 and Q1 2018, 396,000 new jobs were created related to tourism.
The recovery of the Spanish economy has shown strong growth in more than just GDP. Exports of goods and services have grown considerably from 25.6% of GDP to 34.4% between 2010 and 2017, while employment has also shown notable growth (1.9 million more people in work since Q2 2014). This increase in exports is not only helping to create jobs, but whatsmore, to improve the quality of employment.
With wages rising at well under 3%, any productivity improvements greater than 1% will mean wages are not helping the Federal Reserve hit its putative 2% inflation target.
Spain ended 2017 with 611.146 more people in a job, a notable improvement on the results of the previous four years. The number of people signed on with the Social Security rose 3.4% to 18.460.201 from a year earlier.
During the first half of 2017, the employment level in the Eurozone came back at its pre-crisis peak level. This was already the case for the first quarter but it has been confirmed for the three months to June, which reflects a catch up when growth is more robust and with less uncertainty”, says Philippe Waetcher, chief economist at Natixis AM.
With a very low jobless rate (5,8%), Germany is growing for the eighth year in a row. This is allowing it to attract capital and qualified workers. Even so, the future of the jobs market is a concern, and a key issue in this Autumn’s elections.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is stubbornly holding on to his target-promise that Spain can create 20 million jobs by 2020 if the current economic policy is maintained. But the reality of the Spanish economy is just as obstinately demonstrating that there are very considerable holes.