Equity And Bond Investors Agree To Disagree
Stock and bond investors seem to have very different assessments of the impact of the virus: despite a pickup in realised volatility, equity markets (especially in the developed world) have reached new highs over the last couple of weeks. The VIX index rose above 17 at the end of last week, but is well below the levels seen in August 2019 in the midst of the US-China trade war (24.6) or at the end of December 2018 when recession fears gripped markets (36). Implied earnings growth rates for equities remain solidly positive, even for the MSCI Emerging Markets index (about 5% over the next year). The view from the equity market seems clear: COVID-19 is a risk but should not derail the supportive context for corporate earnings and stock prices.