Today we will have Eurozone CPI data, without any surprises on the horizon. The average EMU CPI rate will come in at 1.5% in 2017 compared with 0.2% in 2016. This is after a year when the annual inflation rate actually reached 2% in February when the increasing effect of energy prices was at its most aggressive.
While the EU statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday GDP in the eurozone rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September and 2.5% year-on-year, the EC revised yesterday its growth forecast for the region to 2.2%, markedly higher for this and next year. Therefore, this Commission’s expectation in 2017 is well justified, based on published data from Eurostat.
The IMF has just upped its forecast for global growth by one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.6% and 3.7% respectively for this year and the next. The message from the supranational organisation is relatively positive: over 75% of the world is seeing an acceleration in its rate of growth.
ACF | The ECB is proposing a tightening up of the provisions required from the European banks to cover loans which are classified as doubtful from January 2018, according to today’s press.
The latest set of September PMIs published yesterday showed that global economic growth momentum will remain very strong until year end, with the US, Europe and Japan set for even higher growth in Q4 2017 and only a minor cooling of economic growth in China. This bodes well for a continuation of US rate normalisation in December 2017.
During the first half of 2017, the employment level in the Eurozone came back at its pre-crisis peak level. This was already the case for the first quarter but it has been confirmed for the three months to June, which reflects a catch up when growth is more robust and with less uncertainty”, says Philippe Waetcher, chief economist at Natixis AM.
While the euro area managed to sustain its upbeat momentum over the summer months , market doubt s about the trajectory of the US recovery have started to deepen. As economic growth becomes less dependent on accommodative monetary policy, markets are increasingly focusing on politics and the ability of governments to implement fiscal and structural reforms.
This was heard at Jackson Hole: “The cyclical recovery was gathering both pace and geographical breadth, thanks in part to the stimulus efforts of central bankers, the European Central Bank president said, adding that even if inflation remained low, the euro area economy was “gaining ground”. The Fed and the ECB feel they have done all they could. What a cop-out!
CaixaBank Research | Spain’s property sector is on the up and up again, as can be seen from the trend in housing purchases over the last two years. These have been rising at double digit rates, fuelled by a recovery in the jobs market combined with favourable financial conditions.
The minutes of the ECB’s July meeting published on Thursday reflected the central bank’s concern about the strength of the euro, but also a degree of caution regarding continued weak inflation data, analysts say.