BS Markets | The growth of the Eurozone economy continued in August, although “at a slower rhythm tan in the last 18 months”. Moreover, companies´expectations of future growth have fallen to the lowest level in almost two years, according to the data of the PMI study by consultant Markit.
Obsessed by minor issues, Europe forgets the important thing. If it really wants to avoid a repetition of the banking crisis, it should apply itself to guaranteeing high and sustainable growth, as well as introducing solid cushions of own funds for hard times and a more efficient preventive supervision. However, reducing the problems of the Eurozone to no more than the health of the banks is an exercise in short sightedness.
BoAML think that national fiscal buffers will be the only device to face the next cyclical downturn. In fact, with a fairly mild cyclical shock, the Stability and Growth Pact would be severely stressed. The solution can be a growth-stabilising euro area budget. If not, monetary policy may have limited further space.
Francisco Vidal (Intermoney) | The next few days will be interesting as EU leaders confront the future of the European project, although they will also have to deal with the latest developments on Brexit, and no doubt dedicate time to US commercial belligerence.
In a speech given on 11 June 2018 in the IFo Institute (Munich), former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis noted the urgent need for a fiscal reform, which France and Germany see in a very different way, in order to save the Eurozone.
Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 arrived in line with a GDP tracker at +0.4% on a quarterly basis estimated by AXA IM strategists (versus a consensus of 0.6%) and reflected “the weakness in industrial production in several member states during January and February.”
Eurozone banks are currently keeping 690 billion euros at their central bank, according to the ECB’s last figures. While the European Commission aims to achieve by end-2018 a completed banking union, this an evidence of a more fragmented market. Are lenders suspicious of their refinancing capability in order to honour their debts? And why is Ewald Nowotny asking to cut them some slack?
Just a couple of years ago, deflation was a concern for US economists. And, although it’s true that this threat has almost disappeared, rises in prices have shown themselves to be surprisingly elusive.
Athanasios Dimadis and Pierre Moscovici | President Trump’s election marked a new turn in the US-EU relations. EU commissioner for economic affairs, Pierre Moscovici, did not shrink from using harsh language in the past to respond to President Trump’s comments about potential EU collapse. During the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Moscovici suggested that the isolationist tendencies inherent in Trump’s “America First” approach could be countered by what he calls a “European way.”
After twenty years of similarity between 10-year rates in the US and Germany, for the last six years there has been a growing decoupling of the US rate, reaching a spread of 2%. So what are the macroeconomic differences justifying such behaviour? Germany’s huge savings play a big part.