Top Stories

FED

The global economy in the year 2018

In Europe 24th March 2015

Uncertainty hits global economy

MADRID | March 24, 2015 | By J.P Marín-Arrese | On face value, Europe is recovering from a bad spell while the US is growing at an invidious rate. However, the wild currency swing may yet destabilise the global economy. Janet Yellen’s remarks on the threat of an overvalued dollar were designed to preserve a balanced performance, and indeed sparked a quick reaction in exchange rates. Yet, as the ECB unfurls its massive quantitative easing programme, volatility in the currency markets could inflict further damage. 

coffee with beans

In Europe 16th March 2015

Morning briefing: US Fed language will focus attention

The Corner | March 16, 2015 | The week ahead is likely to be dominated by the FOMC meeting in the US.  Market watchers are expecting some movement on the semantics of pronouncements by the US Fed. In essence, any change in language will signal that a rates hike from the central bank is drawing closer.

A close up of a dollar note

Markets 15th March 2015

The dollar’s unsettling upsurge

MADRID | March 15, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | The markets have discounted an unchallenged drift upwards of the US currency, after the ECB embarked on its ambitious asset-buying scheme. Yet few anticipated the move might come so soon and reach such a rapid pace. As the Euro turns its retreat into a disorderly rout, emerging economies like Brazil are falling under unbearable pressure. The dollar’s swift upsurge has pounded global markets. 

Santander US holding

Companies 13th March 2015

Analysis: Fed delivers a scathing blow to Santander bank

MADRID | March 13, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | The quantitative test conducted under the Dodd-Frank Act showed a comfortable capital cushion for all eligible banks. Yet both Santander and Deustche Bank subsidiaries blatantly failed the qualitative review undertaken by the Fed under the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). In short, the banking supervisor considered their capital plans and risk management to be utterly inconsistent. It has delivered a damaging blow that should prompt swift action to redress such an appalling outcome. Santander has already announced a major overhaul in its US banking arm, but the Group as a whole badly needs to address its failures. 

Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen

World economy 26th February 2015

Janet Yellen may soon run out of patience

MADRID | February 26, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | The FED is back in business after years of loose monetary policy aimed at redressing an ailing economy. With the business climate markedly improving, the time is ripe to raise rates. Yet, Janet Yellen has repeatedly warned against a swift hike, instead emphasising the need for patience until the upward trend is solidly anchored. In her testimony before the Senate Committee, she noted that policy would only cover the next two FOMC meetings, sparking speculation that the move could well start in June. 

No Picture

Companies, Markets 25th February 2015

EU markets opening

MADRID | The Corner | February 25, 2015 | Spanish telecom giant Telefonica reported a drop of 34.7% in net profit, although investors celebrated revenue picture  brightening up. Elsewhere, the Spanish Producer Price Index falls again, registering a drop of 2.8% for January.

No Picture

World economy 21st January 2015

Deflation: Economists sink into dementia

Guest post by Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | What to make of the recent dust-up around Rogoff World, in which the U.S. would pursue a cashless, deflationary federal police state characterized by negative interest rates? Harvard don Ken Rogoff has suggested this is the best macroeconomic option going forward. My take-away? The economics profession is deep into dementia.

fed

World economy 20th January 2015

The Federal Reserve was all set for mid-2015. Is that still true?

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | On December 2 2014, Stanley Fisher gave an interview (video) to Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ. It was notable because Fischer had mostly been quiet, except for a couple of Lectures (not speeches) – here, here – given in international forums.  Six or seven weeks later, is that interview still pertinent? At that point oil prices stood at close to USD 70 and now they stand below 50. Mostly as a reflection of low global AD (here).The global scenario is changing quickly, and not for the better. So maybe Fischer is not so sure anymore. [Image:WSJ]