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World economy 19th May 2014

Yet another delay in the long-awaited global growth acceleration

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | 2014 was supposed to be different. After three years of disappointment, this was meant to be the year when the global economy had a broader, higher and more persistently solid level of growth – at least, this was the consensus narrative. In the end, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of global growth in Q1 was among the weakest of the recovery. US growth was near zero (probably negative after revisions) and China’s GDP growth was below already low forecasts.

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World economy 28th April 2014

Market volatilities are low, but not exceedingly so

LONDON | By Aroop Chatterjee at Barclays | Implied volatilities in a number of asset markets have been recently trading close to their lowest levels since 2007. This has happened despite prevailing uncertainties about the durability of US economic growth or the path of Fed policy.

Earnings seasons

World economy 27th January 2014

Earnings season, or the art of managing expectations

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | We are, again, in the midst of an earnings season. But, should we call it ‘earning season’ or ‘earnings exceed the forecast session’? Because companies tend to earn more than they expected, and also more than the markets’ forecast. Another nail in the coffin of the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

Political reality ignores Nobel winner wisdom

World economy 15th October 2013

Political reality ignores Nobel winner’s wisdom

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Robert Schiller has always been an advocate of a moderate government intervention in financial markets. He also criticised the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) because he considered that asset prices are not among the areas of central banks. However, political reality seems to go in the opposite direction of the new Nobel winner.

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Markets 30th September 2013

U.S. Government Shutdown: A Storm Pushes Through the Markets

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo |The clock is ticking: if Congress can’t agree to budget terms, parts of the federal government will shut down by Monday midnight. But markets have reacted differently than expected to this political pulse between Democrats and Republicans.

china

Markets 11th September 2013

China’s New Experiment: Financial Equality

Iris Mir | China starts a new round of economic experimentation. Shanghai is set to become the new engine of growth with a China’s first Free Trade Zone (FTZ). The goal is to attract foreign investment by testing new deregulation rules that should give foreign companies greater flexibility. But urgent reforms in other areas are a must in order to transform the rise of the income of Chinese households into real purchasing power.

Chinese economy

World economy 18th June 2013

China, a new maturity stage

Keep in mind a new concept: Lionomics. An acronym that gives name to the ambitious process of economic reform the new Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang must bring forward.

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Markets 28th May 2013

Who are the Real Winners From Complex Financial Regulations?

Former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton believes the response to the financial crisis has been ever more complex financial regulations. For him, that is a mistake, since they carry huge economic costs, divert talent, time and money away from productive activity and don’t make the European economy more competitive.

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Markets, World economy 6th May 2013

The Enduring Glow of Gold

BEIJING |  Caixin Magazine | A ripple of skepticism recently hit prices of the yellow metal, but gold remains the ultimate hedge on inflation, as former Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economist for Asia Pacific Andy Xie explains. The global economy has already entered into stagflation with a growth rate of 2 percent and inflation at 3 percent. The inflation rate is likely to rise above 4 percent in 18 months while the growth rate will remain stuck in the same range. With inflation twice as high as the growth rate, the global economy will slip deeper into stagflation.

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Markets 3rd May 2013

Facebook investors are getting anxious

NEW YORK | What happens when you know the path to benefits is long and uncertain, but your current expenses are growing? You might have bought stock on Facebook because of the media hype, yet now you are not sure how to monetize it. Neither do they.