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fiscal policy

Global Economy

World economy 25th January 2020

After Growing 3.2% In 2019, The Global Economy Will Expand 3.2% In 2020 And 3.3% In 2021

These growth forecasts are  dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).

The ECB thinks that the European financial system could withstand even lower rates

European economy 5th December 2019

Popularity Of Fiscal Policy Rises As New European Leadership Shows Up

David Kohl (Julius Baer) | The European political leadership is in transition, with Ursula von der Leyen starting as President of the European Commission and Christine Lagarde as President of the European Central Bank and the Social Democrats in Germany voting for a new leadership. The common denominator of the most recent leadership changes in Europe is more openness towards an expansionary fiscal policy at the expense of austerity, which had been the mantra of the past ten years.

Spain inflation

In Europe 12th November 2019

Eurozone’s macro adjustment – (mostly) Checked

The best indicator of activity in the Eurozone is not the PMIs, but the Sentix Index, the investor sentiment meter: although it is true that it is still at low levels, it just experience the highest rise since August 2009.

french yellow vest

Spanish economy, World economy 8th November 2019

Taxes, the unpopular conundrum

Fernando G. Urbaneja | In France, president Macron, making good arguments, although not explaining them enough, wanted to raise taxes on fuel and millions of citizens forced him to back down. In Ecuador, President Lenin Moreno has gone through such a trance for the same reason. In Chile, President Piñera is on the verge of eviction for the attempt to raise urban transport rates.

Madrid stock market

Markets 4th May 2019

Western equities rose 4% in April

Link Securities | … After these rises both indices and many shares are somewhat over bought, which is why no-one should be surprised that they pit stop, even more so when considering how much they have risen since the beginning of the year.

euro coins

In Europe 28th March 2019

The Eurozone’s major fiscal stimulus of the decade may arrive not with a common plan but rather through national initiatives

The market has scarcely contemplated the possibility of a major fiscal stimulus in the Eurozone. However, the strategists at Morgan Stanley believe that, after two years marked by a restrictive fiscal policy, we could see the largest fiscal stimulus of the last decade, not through a common plan, but rather through national level initiatives, especially in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Jerome Powell

World economy 27th September 2018

Jerome Powell Does Not Believe The Current Fiscal Policy Is Sustainable

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The effective rate will evolve in a corridor between 2% and 2.25%. The dots graph reflecting monetary policy committee members’ expectations suggests 3 rate increases in 2019, 1 in 2020 and none in 2021. As pointed by Philippe Waechter from Natixis IM, this profile, for 2019 and 2020, is unchanged from last June forecasts.