Bruno Cavalier (ODDO BHF) | In a few weeks’ time, Angela Merkel will cease to be Chancellor, a position she has held since 2005. Polls show that the three main contenders to succeed her are tied. Despite Germany’s good performance in the first Covid-19 wave, successive waves of contagions brought new restrictions in early 2021, delaying the recovery. Also, Germany clearly suffers from its overexposure to the automotive industry, which is 25 points below normal.
Gilles Moëc (Axa Investments Manager)| Those who like to see their glass half full probably took comfort in the fact that in Germany the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rebounded by 0.2 pp in October relative to September, but this was again short of expectations and the absolute level remains very concerning.
Link Securities | German business expectations are at an eight year low. The ZEW surveys elaborated by experts on the current conditions of the economy in August indicated a very pessimistic atmosphere.
Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | Germany is its firms. Germany is Deutsche Bank, Bayer, Thyssenkrupp, VW. What German executive Dieter Zetsche said a few weeks ago, that “it is not clear that the brand Mercedes Benz will exist in the future”, symbolises the identity crisis generated by global pressure, digitalisation and the latest technological revolution. Many of the consortia which form part of the German economic identity are between a rock and a hard place. It would be the definitive goodbye to the so-called Germany Ltd.
In total, despite the big recession, the German economy has grown 26% so far this century and, even more importantly, 20% from the minimums of Q1’09. It is currently experiencing one of its best moments since the “V” exit from the big crisis.
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreases by 4.7 points compared to the previous month.
Intermoney | March 6, 2015 | From 2007-2015, global debt has increased 289% in excess GDP. The rapid increase of global indebtedness and financial asset prices could actually be defined as a global bubble with a major destabilizing factor: the significant surpluses accumulated by certain countries that force others to adopt a deficit position. International liquidity growth has only raised the volume of speculative money flows, which are now able to destabilise any economy, regardless of their economic virtues.
The Corner | March 2, 2015 | The engine of Europe’s economy outperformed expectations in 4Q2014, and that is good news for all the eurozone. Germany is increasingly depending on internal demand, which was the main contributor to the 1.6% GDP growth last year: 0.4 basis points.