Crédito y Caución has lowered its growth forecasts for world merchandise trade in volume to 1.5% for 2023, compared to 4% that reflected its previous estimate. The downward revision occurs as a result of the sharp cut, to 1.7%, of the world GDP growth forecasts for 2023. A few weeks ago, the World Trade Organization already announced that it expects that the growth of world trade capped at 1% in…
Rory Hopcraft, Kevin Jones and Kimberly Tam via The Conversation | It’s estimated that 90% of the world’s trade is transported by sea. As consumers, we rarely give much thought to how the things we buy make their way across the planet and into our homes. That is, until an incident like the recent grounding of a huge container ship, the Ever Given, in the Suez Canal exposes the weaknesses in this global system.
David Kohl (Julius Baer) | The signing of the phase one of the trade deal between the US and China this week would confirm the easing of trade-related growth headwinds in 2020. Persisting geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, as well as ambitious import targets for US goods, prevents the trade agreement from boosting business sentiment significantly.
Charles Hankla (The Conversation) | Just as America’s trade war with China may be winding down, its troubles with Europe seem to be growing.
Roberto Azevêdo via Caixin | Trade has long proven to be an engine for growth and development, and in recent decades the countries of East Asia and the Pacific have been major beneficiaries of this phenomenon. However, many are arguing that this engine of growth and development is in need of repair.
UBS | Global trade in goods and services has risen to a record share of the world economy in real terms. In nominal terms it has stagnated – which basically tells us that the price of traded goods and services is falling relative to the price of non-traded goods and services. Hardly surprising given where oil is.
Allan Bollard via Caixin | Concerns about the impact of global trade and growth on environmental protection and sustainability, and vice versa, are longstanding and not without cause. Yet, the advancement of these 21st century priorities is not an either/or proposition. To the contrary, they can and must go hand in hand.
LONDON | World trade volumes –for both goods and services– have risen by less than global GDP over the past four years. This is an unprecedented outcome in post WW2 history, UBS analysts point out.