The predicted train crash between the Catalan and the Spanish governments has now happened. But what’s next? It’s difficult for the referendum to be a success, but the the fact there is no independence in the short-term, doesn’t mean that the train crash is not going to have consequences in the medium-term.
After a brief look through the main international newspapers and publications, if there is one thing that’s clear it’s that the dominant view is there will be no referendum in Catalonia. And if it does take place, it will have zero effect. In other words, it won’t bring the region independence.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | Accusing Catalan nationalists of attempting to profit from a terrorist attack is not going to change minds. A little empathy, by contrast, and maybe a little bit of compromise, would go a long way.
Are Scotland and Catalonia willing to do what it takes to achieve independence? In 2007, the Scottish National Party launched a proposal of holding a referendum over Scotland’s independence. In 2009, some activists detached from mainstream Catalan parties launched the same proposal in Catalonia and actually held unofficial referenda that drove more than a million people to the polls voting overwhelmingly for independence.
Acting as an “agent provocateur”, Catalonia’s government intends to hold a wholly biased and unrepresentative independence referendum in early October. It knows the outturn will hardly attain half of the potential voters, as only a minority of the population favours an outright split from Spain.
Another solemn announcement by the Catalan government, another date for the diary. On October 1, the Catalan people will be asked to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the following question: “Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state in the form of a republic?”. The Catalan separatist camp, led by regional premier Carles Puigdemont, hopes for a victory that will then see the north-eastern region declare independence from Spain.
D-Day for the United Kingdom has arrived. Theresa May will trigger Article 50, starting the divorce from the European Union. Against this backdrop, the PM is facing the threat of a second separation on the domestic front, namely from Scotland, which is not resigned to leaving the EU.
In Madrid, much of the media and most commentators, -not to mention the big national parties — tend to be bewildered, if not outraged, by the secessionist drive. When in Catalonia (or at least speaking to independentistas), I find that the opposite is true: disenchantment with and disdain for the Spanish state is almost a given and the word “independence” tossed around as if it were a football.
I hate this endless temptation for bracketing time into what we call “years.” Time is time and, by definition, there are no interruptions. The problems which beset us in 2016 are still here, whether it’s terrorism or open warfare or Spain’s ingovernability. Thinking it’s going to be very different in 2017 is deceiving ourselves.
AXA IM | Four months after the elections, negotiations to form a government officially failed and new elections will be organised on 26 June. However, it remains very unclear that their outcome will be more favourable, though probably conducive to a government as a third round of elections would be a tremendous failure. Fiscal consolidation and Catalonia’s independence will be top priorities.