After months focused on the eurodrama, markets are starting to care more about the so-called fiscal cliff, a popular shorthand term used to describe the situation that Washington will face at the end of this year. Bush tax cuts are set to expire unless Republicans and Democrats agree on how to extend them and who would have to pay. This combined with $110 billion in defense and domestic spending cuts…
LONDON | Morgan Stanley recently estimated that liabilities in fines and damages could amount to as much as $22 billion against the dozen banks allegedly involved in Libor-rigging. No one knows. The dimension of the case could scale up once brought to the courts of justice and the spillover on the markets would be extremely difficult to contain. The risk is all too evident. For instance, when Barclays was sentenced…
how to get your ex girlfriend back By www.consensodelmercado.com, in Madrid | Europe has been immersed in a long and complex change process for the last three years. The global currency department at JP Morgan has published a report marking out the path that Europe should be following in the medium and long term. It expects a main scenario in which no country member leaves the euro, but in which…
NEW YORK | “Errors”, “sloppiness” and “bad judgements”. Whatever. The fact is that JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon, no matter what he pleads, is the ultimate responsible for the bank’s 2 billion dollars loss through risky trade with its own money. A big embarrassment that made their stock price plummet around one tenth of their value on Friday session dragging the rest of the banking sector. Washington, Wall Street and financial…
NEW YORK | There are more than 20.000 market makers only in the US. Now one of them –a very, very big one, JP Morgan– has broken for the first time a code of silence among investment banks by revealing how much they rakes in as a market-maker. A market-maker quotes bid and offers prices for specific stocks or other securities that it holds. Its aim is to make money by…
WASHINGTON | Second part of our conversation with Colin Fenton, global head of Commodities Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan. What will be the effect of the closing of Iranian exports to Europe. Will it take a lot of time or effort to adapt European oil refineries to other types of oil? It always take some time to adapt, and reorientation of supply pathways, especially with trade barriers, tends to have…
WASHINGTON | Colin Fenton is the global head of Commodities Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan. Fenton believes that there is margin for higher energy prices, with limited economic damage. Brent and WTI are behaving virtually like “two different commodities”, as one trader put it last week. Asia, tied to Brent oil, has relatively strong oil demand and limited supply, while the US is experiencing an energy production renaissance in the context…
According to JP Morgan, taking the last 30 years, it appears evident that the S&P500 has an average annual return of 7.5%, which makes sense considering an average annual inflation of 3.5% coupled with an average GDP increase of 3% (as an average of the cycles), plus a modest risk premium added. “The greatest deviations in the last 30 years from this trend occurred during the tech bubble and the credit…
One would think it’s all rumours and half-baked drafts more akin to belong to a neverending script than to the global finances’ reality, but that doesn’t prevent financial institutions from making a serious effort to analyse possible and probable results of their implementation. JP Morgan says “The possibility that any important news/measure comes out of some of the many meetings/summits that are planned for the next week and a half,…
NEW YORK | Financial Times’s interview with Jamie Dimon was intended to create momentum. JP Morgan’s chief executive is now attacking new banking rules by Basel committee, trying to convince against the new regulation to water down Basel III the same way the major US banks have lobbied in Washington to water down Dodd-Frank Act, Obama’s new set of rules after the financial crisis. Dimon’s argument goes like this: the Basel…