From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.
Shaun Riordan | The motion of censure against Spanish Prime Minister and the election of socialist leader Sanchez as his successor has briefly spooked markets. But in the end it may make less difference than it seems at first sight.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | The Spanish parliament has suddenly and unexpectedly used a constitutional motion of censure against the government of Rajoy to elect a new government. The new government returns Spain to the ancient ghosts of the first third of the 20th century: multi-party and fractured coalitions.
Shaun Riordan | The fate of Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy was in the end settled by the five votes of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Until yesterday´s debate in the Congress, Rajoy was confident that the Basques, who last week voted in favour of the 2018 budget, would abstain. This would have denied socialist leader of the absolute majority he needed to eject Rajoy from the Moncloa Palace. But this time the Basque Nationalist Party had other priorities.
Whether the secessionists lead the new Catalonia’s government or not after December 21 elections, the weakened Spanish government will be inevitably forced to go through a negotiated constitutional reform which, amongst other objectives, will aim to satisfy the unrepentant Catalan nationalism.
From 15:25 last Friday afternoon, when the Catalan Parliament made its unilateral declaration of independence, events have speeded up. Three hours after the solemn, but sad proclamation, the Republic of Catalonia disappeared into thin air. Mariano Rajoy dissolved the regional parliament and fired Carles Puigdemont’s government by implementing Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in the Senate. And the biggest surprise: a call for elections on December 21.
Whether it’s the initiative of the Catalan or Spanish government, Catalonia is this week heading for elections at the beginning of 2018. Some will say the elections are constituent towards obtaining independence and the new Republic of Catalonia. Others will hold the view that they are autonomous elections under the protection of the 1978 Spanish Constitution. In fact what they will be are elections to clarify the current real political map in Catalonia.
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont had until 10 am on Monday 16 October to clarify whether he has declared independence or not. As was widely expected, he answered PM Mariano Rajoy in an ambiguous way, with neither a clear yes nor a no. He has until Thursday at 10 am to avoid the government applying article 155 of the Constitution.
Whatever you think of Mariano Rajoy, you can’t deny his ability to dig in. When in opposition, as leader of the conservative Popular Party (PP), he survived two general election losses, as well as thwarting mutinies within his own ranks; as prime minister since 2011 he has ridden through economic near-meltdown, the threat of new parties Podemos and Ciudadanos and a torrent of corruption scandals.
The country which tried to invade England in 1588 may become its best ally. After the 28 European partners held their Summit in Malta at the beginning of February, this was the Bloomberg headline regarding the relations between Madrid and London during the Brexit negotiations. But the question of Gibraltar remains a thorny one.