inflation board

Inflation, Recession… And What Can Actually Be Done

Miguel Navascués | Although there seems to be no awareness of it, the current problem in the world economy is of cosmic proportions, a problem for which we have no close antecedents. We have huge pockets of liquidity, originated to alleviate the contraction of the pandemic, now that inflation is rebounding with great vigour, and a recession that is already being announced in some indicators; what some translate as an…

The Fed balance sheet and repo facility cannot explain the stock market’s movement in isolation

Risks are rising, but recession in the eurozone is not expected

Johannes Müller (DWS) | Three months ago, we warned that: “The outlook for the world economy is getting cloudier. Escalating trade tensions could trigger further downgrades.” Sadly, this has now come to pass. In several export-oriented economies, notably Germany and Japan, we had to cut our growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. For the U.S., we have left our 2020 forecast unchanged at 2%, but now expect just 2.3% for 2019, 0.2% less than three months ago.


No need to fear the inversion of the yield curve

Jeroen Blokland (Robeco) | The yield curve for US 10 year/ 3 month Trasury bonds inverted in March. This phenomenon has accurately predicted the last seven recessions. However, analysis shows that is does not cause extreme variations in returns on assets.

Brexit 800x400

Does Brexit Lead to X-Exit?

BoAML | After Brexit, we followed through on our scenario analysis, penciling in a full-blown UK recession, cutting 0.5% off of Euro Area growth and slicing 0.2% off of US and global growth. Events since Brexit have not changed our call. The pound has plunged more than 11% since the vote, and both consumer and business confidence have tumbled.

No Picture

Japan falls into technical recession

MADRID | The Corner | The Japanese economy unexpectedly entered recession in the third quarter, just after the GDP decreased by an annualised pace of 1.6 per cent, versus forecasts that it would rebound by 2.2 per cent. Japan contracted by 0.4% in the 3Q14, leaving the country in a technical recession, which drove the Nikkei to near 3% losses and raised serious questions about the planned sales tax hike next year.

Spanish economy's challenges

Spain steps out of recession

MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | The gloomy angst triggered by the most prolonged recession ever witnessed by the Spanish economy in modern times is over. After nine successive quarters of GDP decline, the Central Bank gauges national production might have increased at a meagre 0.1% in the last quarter. This announcement has come as a bolstering relief for government. Ministers openly claim that growth is firmly back on track, the reform plans implemented last year being granted full credit in propelling the economy out of trouble.


No Picture

Who is behind US economic recovery?

NEW YORK |The Federal Reserve is perhaps one of the most important political factors behind the slow but steady US economic recovery -the country is growing at a 2.5% pace a year despite Europe’s recession and China’s slowdown-. But also, and here comes a problem, America’s central bank could be behind the crazy Wall Street rally.

SP 500

After 45 months of S&P 500 rises

MADRID | By Javier Flores, analyst at Asinver | The question, of course, is how long it will take for the curve to head downwards. No expansion lasts for ever.