S&P 500

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S&P 500: Already More Earnings Revisions Are Down Than Up.

Earnings revisions moved into negative territory last week, implying that there are more downward revisions than upward revisions, a dynamic that Morgan Stanley analysts say “typically precedes EPS consolidation”. In that sense, they point out that “EPS consolidation in a growth scare environment rather than a recession is typically 3% on average … and spanning an average period of 3 months. Applying this historical precedent to the current environment results…

Change of cycle to cyclical stocks to defensive

The S&P500 Trades At 23.5 Times Earnings And So Much Euphoria Causes Vertigo

T.C | From today until Thursday, companies representing 40% of the S&P500 will present their results for the first quarter of this year. Alphabet and Microsoft today, Tuesday. Apple and Facebook on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday… and expectations are very high indeed. For example, in the case of Apple, a 32% advance in profits is discounted, while in the case of Tesla, which presents on Tuesday, a +71% increase in both revenues and profits is expected.

earnings wall street

Corporate-Earnings Estimates For 2020 Are Likely To Be Revised Downwards. How Hard Could The S&P 500 Be Hit?

DWS | How bad could things get for corporate earnings, both in the U.S. and worldwide? In the face of a global health emergency, the short answer is that it remains hard to tell. Large parts of the world are under Covid-19 lockdown, delivering tremendous short-term shocks to the supply side and threatening to bring demand destruction on a massive scale. The disruptions will be comparable or worse than after September 11, 2001 and the onset of the financial crisis in 2008.

Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed.

DWS: “Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed. This could create some downward momentum”

DWS | How should a hedge fund have positioned itself if it had known the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decisions and press release a day ahead of the market? Until lunchtime on Wednesday noon its staff might have reasonably concluded that the material contained preciously little actionable information. On paper, it would have all looked exactly as expected, leaving limited scope for any meaningful market reaction. This is not, of course, how things actually turned out.


US equities shine despite war trade fears

US Equities Shine As Trade War Worries Grow

Global equities have held up fairly well in light of the generally negative news flow, entirely driven by the United States, where stocks are up 9.6% year to date, while the euro area, Japan and emerging markets have underperformed. In this context, the Research team from AXA IM points that earnings momentum remains “robust” with the second quarter earnings season posting “positive growth” and “surprising” on the upside across most major regions.

US corporate debt could be underestimated

Stock Markets Are Not The Same As They Were A Century Ago

Comparing the average PER of a current stock market index with what it was historically is a simplistic approximation and can lead to wrong conclusions. In fact, we should take into account the differences in ROE. In the big stock market indices (S&P 500 in the US, Euro Stoxx 50 in the Eurozone) companies with a greater ROE have been gaining more weight.