Turkey

In the World, World economy 30th March 2021

Turkey – Recession Avoided, But Lira Volatility And High Inflation Remain Issues

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The government and the Central Bank returned to more orthodox economic policies in H2 of 2020. Between September and December 2020 the Central Bank tightened the benchmark interest rate several times, by 875 basis points in total, to 17%. Despite this hike, inflation remains stubbornly high (15.6% in February 2021), and is expected to only gradually decrease in the coming months, due to persistent expectations of high inflation and ongoing price pressure triggered by a weak lira exchange rate. In mid-March 2021, the benchmark interest rate was raised again, by 200 basis points, to 19%. However, President Erdogan dismissed the governor of the Central Bank immediately after – the third dismissal of a governor in less than two years.

Ibex 25th March 2021

BBVA Maintains Its Strategy In Turkey As A Long-Term “Well Positioned” Investor

According to Genç, the main risk for the entity in Turkey does not lie in the recent dismissal of the Turkish Central Bank governor, but in foreign currency operations, something that the entity can handle “without problems” as it is a long-term investor. The main risk for the entity in Turkey does not lie in the recent dismissal of the Turkish Central Bank governor, but in foreign currency operations.

European politics 13th January 2021

Turkey-Still Solid Activity In 4Q20

Ali Batuhan Barlas (BBVA Research) | Industrial Production (IP) grew by 11% yoy in cal. adj. terms in November, confirming a growth level in the first 2 months of 4Q20 (9%) similar to the strong 3Q20 performance (8.5%). We expect GDP growth to materialize near 5% in 2021, benefiting from a sizable contribution from external demand

European economy 31st August 2020

Turkey: GDP Slumped But Beat Market Expectations

Ali Batuhan Barlas / Adem Ileri / Berk Orkun Isa / Seda Guler Mert / Alvaro Ortiz (BBVA Research) | Turkish economy contracted by -9.9% in yearly terms in 2Q20 (-10.7% Bloomberg, -12.7% Reuters). The quarter-on-quarter contraction was higher at 11%. The growth rates in services and industry, sensitive to the Covid-19 shock, were the key factors behind.

World economy 3rd September 2018

The Market after the Summer: The Emerging Epicentre of a Crisis

I. de la Torre and L. Torralba (Arcano Partners) | The economist Dornbusch says that “crises take long to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine”. The events that have affected the emerging countries this summer have proven Dornbusch was right.

Markets 26th August 2018

Allianz: Three possible scenarios for Turkey

In the opinion of Neil Dwane, global strategist at Allianz Global Investors, Turkey, confronted by growing structural challenges, especially the latest Lira crisis, needs a stronger response based in stricter fiscal and monetary policy, and a less confrontational foreign policy.

Ibex 24th August 2018

S&P lowers the outlook for BBVA to negative but maintains the rating

Renta 4 | The ratings agency S&P has maintained the rating of BBVA, but has lowered the Outlook from stable to negative because its exposure to Turkey through Garanti, of which BBVA controls 49.85% and which accounts for 15% of the Group´s profits.

In Europe, Markets, World economy 17th August 2018

The Geopolitics of Turkey’s Currency Crisis

Shaun Riordan | The currency markets seem to have given the Turkish Lira a temporary respite. But the underlying problems remain the same: an unsustainable current account deficit; excessive dependence on foreign currency denominated (especially dollar denominated) debt; and high inflation.

Ibex, Markets 14th July 2018

BBVA Will Continue To Suffer Because Of Deterioration In Turkey

Turkish President Erdogan has began to exercise his new “attributes”, recently provided by an ever more authoritarian political system, in relation to the monetary policy of the central bank by affirming informally that interest rates will be lowered. This weakened the Turkish Lira from 4.66/$ to 4.85/$ (although it layered recovered to 4.82/$). This had a negative impact on the share price of BBVA, which holds 49.85% in the Turkish bank Garantí.

Ibex 27th July 2016

BBVA Chairman Is Losing Sleep Over Turkey

Despite all the international support Erdogan has received since the failed coup on July 15, the situation in Turkey has become complicated because of the President’s reaction. It has fuelled a dangerous dynamic in the Euroasian country which could end up harming the Turkish economy and, therefore, the international companies operating there.

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