While the euro area managed to sustain its upbeat momentum over the summer months , market doubt s about the trajectory of the US recovery have started to deepen. As economic growth becomes less dependent on accommodative monetary policy, markets are increasingly focusing on politics and the ability of governments to implement fiscal and structural reforms.
This was heard at Jackson Hole: “The cyclical recovery was gathering both pace and geographical breadth, thanks in part to the stimulus efforts of central bankers, the European Central Bank president said, adding that even if inflation remained low, the euro area economy was “gaining ground”. The Fed and the ECB feel they have done all they could. What a cop-out!
Donald Trump has launched a nation-wide campaign in an attempt to salvage his tax reform plans. And time is running out for Congress. After deciding to totally amend the bill, it is proving to be incapable of reaching a minimum consensus on its shape and content.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | Top military officers are exerting increasing influence in Donald Trump’s administration and causing some to wonder if it’s the start of an American junta. But nobody really expects John Kelly, James Mattis and H.R. McMaster to attempt a putsch.
In Jackson Hole, the FED and ECB Chairs have voiced concern about US plans to unravel the Dodd-Frank financial regulation act, thus undermining overall stability.
The US Congress used to bully the White House by threatening to put a lid on public expenditure, forcing the administration to face failure. Mr Trump has turned the rules of the game upside down by menacing that he will do this should Congress fail to fund the Mexican wall.
US Fed chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi will both be speaking at the Jackson Hole conference later this week. They will be under close scrutiny from investors for any clues on future monetary policy decisions. Analysts believe the Fed should matter more than the ECB at this week’s event.
The minutes released by the FED and the ECB last week shared concern about how to inform about their monetary stance. They fear unsettling the markets should investors wrongly interpret the messages conveyed to them. When you lack a clear policy perspective, the best thing you can do is to manage communication in a fairly tight way.
The minutes of the Fed’s late July meeting released yesterday reflect ongoing concern about muted inflation data, as well as the fact there seems to be some discrepancy amongst FOMC members over when would be the right time to begin the normalisation of the central bank’s balance sheet.
Larry Beck via Fair Observer | The Democratic Party must seize the moment now and deliver a message of change, but change driven by a renewed collective conscience with social justice at its core.