Julius Baer Research | The combination of a positive economic growth narrative, like the fiscal boost under President-elect Trump, and good economic data, creates a powerful positive US consensus. Self-limiting forces of a stronger US dollar and higher interest rates are slowly emerging.
Someone like Donald Trump emerging on the world stage threatens to make too many changes in the status quo, some of which will have a particular impact on Europe’s economies and especially Spain. One area which appears likely to progress at a cruising speed in the short and medium-term is Defence spending. This is a particularly sensitive issue and one which Obama already tried to have modified during his mandate.
In the wake of Trump’s win there has been are record inflow of funds into the US stock market and a heavy outflow from bonds and emerging markets. Over $30 billion went into the US equity market in the week of November 16th, according to data published by EPFR Global.
It is too early to guess what kind of economic policy the Trump administration may deliver. The markets are crossing their fingers and praying the President-elect will ultimately hand over matters to an experienced team.
Julius Baer Research | Bond yields in the US will likely consolidate thanks to the cap of yields in Europe, as the region is not the next eye of the storm, but the anchor for stability on global bond markets. In the short-and medium term, the ECB’s next move is more important than the Fed’s for bond investors globally.
Spanish power company Iberdrola is involved in the electricity and gas generation and distribution businesses in the US. It also has 5.504MW of installed capacity in Mexico, mainly in combined gas cycles. This is one of the pillars of future growth for Iberdrola as it is constructing 4.000 MW to reach a 2020 target of 10.000 MW of installed capacity.
A stock market catastrophe has been announced if Donald Trump won. However, after the intitial shock, most of European financial places, except Ibex, have closed, upwards. Despite Mr. Trump is a political newcomer we may not understimate his capacity of turning his latest endeavor into a success.
Donald Trump has finally triumphed in the US presidential elections, after winning in key states like Florida, Ohio and Pennyslvania. The Republican Party has a secured control of the House of Representatives (the lower house of the US Congress) and it also looks like it will maintain control of the Senate (the upper house).
Natixis AM | The two US presidential contenders offer very different programs, and often vastly diverging, solutions. The combination of both would have a number of somewhat contradictory effects that would affect all US citizens.
Deutsche AM | Should investors care about political campaigns? As we argued in the CIO View Special introducing our 2016 U.S. elections watch, it is easy to get carried away by rash campaign promises in the ups and downs of 24-hour news cycles