US: The “Trumpism” To Come
The big hope of political self-starters like Donald Trump are those voters without a university education, once members of the US middle-class, who accounted for 36% of the electorate in the last elections.
US
G-20 Should Address Income Gap, Fragility of Financial Systems
Guntram B. Wolff via Caixin | G-20 ministers in Shanghai appeared to be aware of the importance of structural work. In particular, there was agreement in our panel discussions that the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project of the OECD was an essential element to deal with tax avoidance and ensure that profits are taxed where economic activity generating it takes place.
US And China Millennials Do Not Mark The End Of European Luxury
UBS | Following our recent launch report on European luxury we have undertaken an analysis of US and Chinese millennial (18-34 years) spending together with UBS Evidence Lab based on our survey of 2,109 consumers. We conclude that millennials will not mark the end to luxury consumption that some fear.
No Inflation In Texas: A Lesson There?
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | It is too bad in some regards that Richard “Inspector Clouseau” Fisher, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in no longer ensconced in that position. For one, he was always great copy. For seconds, he was one of the most infallible reverse indicators of Post War Era, and economic soothsayers could bet against a Fisherian proclamation with a rare calm.
Ben Bernanke Gives His Take on China’s Policy Choices
Caixin | The 2008 global financial crisis thrust Ben Bernanke into the spotlight as his every move drew unprecedented attention, scrutiny continued until he stepped down as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2014.
Rising Inflation Could Cause The Fed To Become More Serious About Rate Hikes
Julius Baer Research | Against all odds the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to show a bias towards normalising rates. Comforted by stabilising financial conditions and a pickup in inflation, the Fed will try to guide market expectations towards additional rate hikes this year.
Euro Area Grows As Fast As The US
James Alexander via Historinhas | Despite all the pessimism the Euro Area nearly caught up with US NGDP growth in Q4. Now that Italy and Spain have finally reported their Nominal GDP figures Eurostat shows that 4Q15 NGDP growth for the Euro monetary region as a whole was almost as fast, year-on-year, as the US.
Oil Price Rally More A question Of Sentiment Than Fundamentals
Julius Baer Research | Oil seemingly maintains last week’s positive momentum and prices continue to rally in early Monday morning trade. There was indeed a set of supportive news pushing Brent benchmark prices close to USD 40 per barrel.
A “strong” US Employment Report In A “Weak” Economy?
Marcus Nunes | The headline numbers for February: 242 thousand jobs and 4.9% unemployment rate. Let´s give these numbers some “structure”. The unemployment rate is the result of two forces that reflect economic decisions by individuals and firms. The first is the employment population ratio (EPOP). The second the labor force participation ratio (LFPR). The unemployment rate is equal to 1-(EPOP/LFPR).
The Fed Should Print Trailers
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Thanks to the extraordinary insights of blogger Kevin Erdmann, the issue of US housing costs and inflation has been brought into better focus. Erdmann recently brought up manufactured housing, or house-trailers, a wonderful topic.