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Articles by The Corner

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.
iran us

Markets, World economy 12th January 2020

What US-Iran tensions mean for investors

Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The financial markets are signalling that the situation in the Middle East won’t get out of hand, but US-Iran friction could continue for some time. The defence industry and oil and gas-related sectors could remain well-supported, but overall we believe investors should be cautious yet patient. Look to higher-quality stocks with lower correlations to the broader market and “hunt for income” if headline volatility is a risk you wish to avoid.

5g network

World economy 10th January 2020

The Global 5G Roll-Out is a Geopolitical Turning Point

Joanna Eva (European Views) | For the best part of two years, wireless carriers in the US and Europe have been hailing the imminent onset of 5G technology. In Europe, Switzerland, Spain and the UK have already adopted commercial 5G coverage in major cities. Beyond the obvious benefits of the new technology, however, most consumers remain wilfully ignorant to the geopolitical realities of the ongoing roll-out; 2020 presents nothing less than an existential crossroads for democracies around the world.

Spain's left’s inability to unite against the right

Spanish economy 10th January 2020

First Coalition Government in Spain: Possible consequences

Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) | It is unlikely that the minority government led by the PSOE significantly reduce the structural deficit and debt of Spain, while the proposal for partial repeal of previous labor market and pension reforms could adversely affect employment and sustainability of the pension system. This government coalition does not have a parliamentary majority and, therefore, depends on the support of other parties to pass each law, starting with the next general budget, which will be crucial for the credit rating of Spain (currently in A- / Stable).

oil

World economy 9th January 2020

Oil: Political markets have short legs

Norbert Rücker (Julius Baer) | Oil prices sold off more than 4% as concerns about supply risks in the Middle East calmed. The latest actions and reactions show that both opponents, the United States and Iran, are shying away from a military escalation out of fear of its potential economic costs. We stick to our Neutral view on oil and see oil prices lower towards year end. Demand should remain soft amidst weak growth, while supplies increase from Canada to the North Sea.

Repsol

World economy 9th January 2020

US is more relaxed about oil spike than Europe – which helps explain differences over Iran

Mueid Al Raee (The Conversation) |Whether or not the Americans actually want higher oil prices, there are certainly good economic reasons why they probably won’t mind them. Deepening the chaos that started with the US withdrawing from the West’s nuclear deal with Iranis an “easy” way to achieve higher oil prices while meeting other strategic objectives. Yet how the Europeans, China and Russia respond will also determine the global flow of oil from Iran and Iraq.

Oil

Markets, Opinion, World economy 7th January 2020

Oil: 2020 Spells Geopolitics For Energy

Norbert Rücker (Julius Baer) |  The oil market is off to a rocky start as the tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. The situation brings lots of uncertainty and geopolitical tea-leaf reading on reactions. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a very unlikely event, the deterioration in Iraq bears supply risks. Geopolitics tend to be a temporary force on oil markets and we believe this time is no different. We raise our near-term forecast to USD 65 per barrel, and maintain a Neutral view on oil.