Compared to American companies, European companies have a higher average dividend yield and lower valuations, which are attractive for those investors who prefer to be more defensive in the last stages of the cycle.
Norbert Rücker (Julius Baer) | The oil market is off to a rocky start as the tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. The situation brings lots of uncertainty and geopolitical tea-leaf reading on reactions. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a very unlikely event, the deterioration in Iraq bears supply risks. Geopolitics tend to be a temporary force on oil markets and we believe this time is no different. We raise our near-term forecast to USD 65 per barrel, and maintain a Neutral view on oil.
Dave Yin (Caixin) | China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.
Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Leftist Zoran Milanovic, a former Prime Minister, has been elected President of Croatia, beating closely right-wing incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Croatia, which was the last country to join the European Union back in 2013, has just assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU for the first time in its history.
Telefónica’s decision to reduce its reliance on Huawei is in line with the company’s strategy to have several different providers for the equipment for its 5G networks, which is expected to be widely deployed by 2022.
Atlantic Sentinel | Left-wing separatists would allow the social democrat to become prime minister a second time. Spanish Socialist Party leader Pedro Sánchez fell short of a absolute majority in Congress on Sunday to become prime minister a second time. However, left-wing separatists from the Basque Country and Catalonia have agreed to abstain from a second vote on Tuesday, which should allow Sánchez to scrape by with a majority of one.
The ECB recently published a paper in which it reviews its monetary policy over the last 20 years. Among other points, the central bank says that interest rates in EMU countries could deepen further into negative territory before being counterproductive.
Círculo de Empresarios | The Bank of Spain forecasts that the Spanish economy will embark on a gradual path of deceleration until 2022, and therefore maintains its 2% and 1.7% annual growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Oriol Carreras and Eduard Llorens i Jimeno (CaixaBank Research) | All the indicators suggest that next year will be defined by the same key elements. As we can see in the first chart, to the extent that global growth, and that of the euro area in particular, remains contained, we do not expect to see a significant surge in exports. Therefore, the foreign sector will continue to provide very modest contributions to growth. Moreover, the global environment will remain a source of risk.