Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Take a fun look at a wonderful display of the “strong men” frenemy macho state leaders that dominate the world of today in what might be its last decades.
Aidan Yao (AXA) | A sudden rise in tensions has cast a dark shadow over Sino-US relations. While the trade war has been the most eye-catching instance, increased “decoupling” has also occurred in areas of technology, investment and social exchanges as the two countries have put up “walls” against one another. But every cloud has a silver lining.
Jean-François Jolivalt (La Française AM) | The more than 40 days of protests and transport strikes in France against the pension reform proposed by the French Government is an unprecedented event in the recent history of France. Strikes are undoubtedly a burden on consumer confidence. However, the population has adapted to the situation thanks to electronic commerce, distance work, carpooling and car sharing, which are all services or alternatives that are now widely accepted and available.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Companies and families have continued reducing their debt levels, down to 131.2% of GDP. Ten years ago their indebtedness exceeded 200%.
The average price of housing in Spain in 2019 increased by 3.6% last year. Only in December it experienced an increase of + 1.2%, according to the real estate valuation company Tinsa. The Mediterranean coast accumulates three consecutive months of price falls.
Spain CPI stood at + 0.8% in December, following estimates and preliminary data. This means an increase of + 0.4%. In fact, inflation in Spain remains below the EU’ average (+ 1.3% in December), which allows the country to continue gaining competitiveness via prices.
BofA| We present three scenarios for the ECB’s balance sheet in 2020 based on TLTROs and APP projections. At the top end, we estimate the ECB’s balance sheet to reach a record high; at the bottom end, we estimate a small decline. Banks’ interest in TLTRO III would be crucial in determining the actual outcome.
David Kohl (Julius Baer) | The signing of the phase one of the trade deal between the US and China this week would confirm the easing of trade-related growth headwinds in 2020. Persisting geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, as well as ambitious import targets for US goods, prevents the trade agreement from boosting business sentiment significantly.
Alphavalue | A third of Spanish telco Telefonica’s board has bought shares since the fall of August. The investment is around € 26 million, led by Francisco Riberas. Pallete, Echenique, García Blanco, Vilá and Carvajal have also acquired titles.
Link Securities | According to Moody’s credit rating agency, the sharp decline in consumer confidence in Spain during 2H19 reflects the growing concerns of Spaniards about the economy and employment. The agency believes that consumer confidence data represent an advanced indicator of the increase in the risk of assets and the consequent deterioration of the evolution of securitized loans.