Medea Benjamin | It would certainly be easy to do a piece about ten horrible events from 2015—from the ongoing war in Syria and the refugee crisis, to the attacks in Beirut, Paris and San Bernardino, to the rise of Donald Trump and Islamophobia. But that wouldn’t be a very inspiring way to bid farewell to this year and usher in a new one. So let’s look at ten reasons to feel better about 2015.
China’s exports declined for the ninth consecutive month in November, falling even more than forecast (-6.8% vs -5% estimated). This data has set off alarm bells in the raw material markets and amongst producer countries, most of which are emerging economies, given that China is their main consumer on a global level. Raw material prices are at their lowest levels since the beginning of the last century.
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Westerners love to hazard guesses on China and that is what they are, guesses. Even a Mandarin speaker in Hong Kong (with whom I recently conversed), with family on the mainland and employed at a large private-equity fund, professes no special insights into opaque China. But China’s central bank, The People’s Bank of China, appears to have eschewed the advice of Western central bankers, and gunned the money presses this summer. Moreover, the PBoC tactic looks to be working.
Keith Weiner via TrumanFactor | Unless you’re living under a rock, you know that we have an administered interest rate. This means that the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve decide what’s good for the little people. Then they impose it on us. In trying to return to freedom, many people wonder why couldn’t we let the market set the interest rate. After all, we don’t have a Corn Control Agency or a Lumber Board (pun intended). So why do we have a Federal Open Market Committee? It’s a very good question.
Caixin | Last month, the G-20 summit held in Turkey endorsed the G-20/OECD Principles of Corporate Governance. As a G-20 country, China is on board with the standards, too. That means Chinese companies, especially state-owned enterprises, must adhere to the principles.
Samantha North | The time is ripe for governments to start monitoring their digital reputation just as they monitor it in the real world. The Digital Country Index has been recently released for the first time. This new tool categorizes online search terms to form a picture of the world’s true levels of interest in countries.
UBS | Our base case forecasts for China’s growth are already below consensus at 6.2% for 2016 and 5.8% for 2017. In this note we study the impact on global economies and assets of a much darker and, in our view, extremely unlikely scenario where China real GDP growth slips to 4%, and nominal growth below 1.5%.
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | The tight-money crowd is dominant in central-bank staffs, and so firmly (and self-perpetuatingly?) ensconced in such independent government sinecures that they look likely to outlast all rivals. That tight-money enthusiasts preach an increasingly dubious religion or ideology—I have dubbed it Theomonetarism—is unimportant. They have allies in media and academia, curiously always on the right-wing side of things (with some exceptions, such as Ramesh Ponnuru at National Review, James Pethokoukis at AEI, and Scott Sumner, of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University).
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat | Since their announcement in late 2013 during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Indonesia and Kazakhstan, the New Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road—also known as “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative—have been under intense scrutiny among academia and policymaking circles in China and around the world.
BARCLAYS | We expect the turn of the calendar to bring a brighter tone to the TIPS market as many of the headwinds from 2015 begin to fade. The carry outlook should be positive after February, y/y headline CPI should move up sharply and concerns over a monetary policy error have receded with
the Fed’s dovish hike.