Germany

G-20 Should Address Income Gap, Fragility of Financial Systems

Guntram B. Wolff via Caixin | G-20 ministers in Shanghai appeared to be aware of the importance of structural work. In particular, there was agreement in our panel discussions that the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project of the OECD was an essential element to deal with tax avoidance and ensure that profits are taxed where economic activity generating it takes place.


The Refugee Crisis And The Beast Within

Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | As symbols go, the imaginary pig’s head in William Golding’s Lord of the Flies requires little explanation. Its meaning is summed up in one line of the unnerving classic. “Fancy thinking the beast was something you could hunt and kill!” says the fly-infested head. “You knew, didn’t you? I’m part of you?”


Face off

MADRID | Sean Duffy | Today´s meeting of the Eurogroup brings Finance Ministers Varoufakis and Scauble head-to-head. Germany are unimpressed with Greek proposals,meaning that the Greeks face the prospect of being cut off from extra bailout funding.



No Picture

Germany: Topsy-turvy world (II)

FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Is Germany living in a crazy world? That’s what many journalists hint at. “The tortoise cycle will continue,” says Johannes Müller, responsible for the management of Deutsche Bank’s large estates. “The interest rates will remain rock-bottom at least until 2016.” This represents an opportunity for the stock exchanges, because the fear of risk is decreasing. “The ECB wants to weaken the Euro with its low interest rates policy, which is also an opportunity to invest in Dollars and real estate.”


No Picture

Germany: Topsy-turvy world (I)

FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | The headlines on the German media would suggest that we live in a crazy world or on the edge looking into the abyss. The fear of a potential catastrophe due to the anti-crisis policy by Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen has led to many different theories and proposals.


No Picture

Falling oil price: 4 wins for Germany

ZURICH | UBS analysts | We see 4 wins for Germany in a backdrop of falling oil prices
1) German equity market is not exposed to Oil & Gas earnings. 2) While our Oil & Gas analysts expect energy capex to fall by 10% (which could hurt a cyclical Germany), the overall fall to European capex is < 3%. Plus capex is already at a 23 year low – can it get much worse? 3) Our economists think lower oil triggers sovereign-based QE given their view it pushes CPI even lower than Tuesday’s 0.3%.


EZ can’t rely on Germany for growth

BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano The Eurozone cannot afford another recession, hence the international and European institutional pressure to force Germany to speed up its economic growth. However, the German economy has grown by only 0.1% in 3Q and, according to the experts, it seems unlikely that it will accelerate in the coming quarters.

 



Export-led economies lose steam

MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | No need to wait for IMF forecasts. The hasty downfall in oil prices signals a steep deterioration in most export-led economies, ranging from China to Brazil. An upsurge in the US dollar coupled with prospects of more stringent credit conditions, are rapidly changing the global mood towards risk aversion. As hot money flees emerging countries bogging down their investment plans, main suppliers of capital goods such as Germany become increasingly crippled.