MADRID | The Corner | Historically, German housing prices have remained flat, but since 2011 they have increased by 30% (a low figure when compared with +150% growth of the last 15 years in UK, France and Spain). Morgan Stanley analysts already see signs of recovery in the German residential sector, so the stocks exposed to it may be attractive. Moreover, housing prices in the UK have fallen significantly more than expected: 40% in August from 48% in July, instead of the 47% expected fall. It’s the lowest level of the past 12 months. According to Bankinter, this is a good sign “because it dissipates the fear of a possible housing bubble and reduces the BoE arguments to raise its main interest rate in advance.”
LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | The financial services industry in Scotland is more than twice as large as that of the rest of the UK when compared to the gross domestic product. But where the unionism points out an unaffordable risk, some analysts see an opportunity. (Image: The first minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond by Robert Perry/EPA)
MADRID | The Corner | The pound fell around 1% against the euro on Monday and the dollar after the results of the first serious poll giving the victory to “yes” in the referendum on separation for Scotland. According to the latest YouGov poll published a day before, the support of Scottish independents would reach 51% vs 49% who are against if the undecided are excluded. UBS economist Paul Donovan commented about the risk of a narrow result in the polls in favor of remaining in the UK, similar to what happened in Quebec in 1995.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | NGDP and RGDP trends are rather similar in both countries. The main question is: Why is the UK´s labor market so much more exuberant?
MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | United Kingdom has displaced Brazil, which displaced before Spain as first market by benefit contribution to Banco Santander. Of the 2,750 million € earned in the first six months (+22% over the first half of 2013), 20% comes from the British market. Brazil contributes the 19% of benefits and Spain recovers share until reaching the 13%. And then there are United States (9%), Mexico (8%), Chile (7%), Poland (6%), Germany (5%), Portugal (2%) and other countries from Europe and Latin America (11%).
LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | The image of the Bank of England’s monetary policy Committee, which met in early July to not issue any decision on interest rates, was at the same time historic and false.
MADRID | By Bankinter analysts | According to Rightmove, housing prices in the UK rose by +0.1% m/m in June versus previous +3.6%. Thus, the year-on-year rate slows down to 7.7% from 8.9%. In such context, Bank of England’s minutes will be particularly relevant this week, especially after Mr Carney said that the rise in interest rates will come sooner than markets expect.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | British Ferrovial’s subsidiary Amey was granted with two contracts in the UK on Monday: a 5-year project for maintaining houses and facilities of the Ministry of Defence, and a second one for partly refurbishing the main country’s rail operator.
LONDON | By Nigel Morris at The Independent via Presseurop | A generation gap has opened up among Britons, with 41 per cent of 18-24 year olds saying they are firmly in favour of the UK’s EU membership or leaning towards support, compared to 32 per cent who are against, according to a new poll published in The Independent.
LONDON | By Terry Macalister at The Guardian via Presseurop | UK’s green plans dealt blow by shelving of Atlantic Array, which would have powered 1m homes and created thousands of jobs.