Intermoney | Aena (AENA) (Buy, Target Price £215/share) confirmed on Thursday that it will execute the previously announced 10×1 split next Thursday, 19 June; this measure was already announced in conjunction with the 2024 annual results.
On the other hand, the operator announced, with the market open, passenger and freight traffic figures for May 2025. The figures for Spain showed an increase of 3% last month to over 29 million passengers, of which almost 11 million were distributed between Barajas and El Prat, which increased their figures by slightly less than 3%. Among the other major airports, Malaga (up 9%) and Valencia (7%) stood out. So far this year, the increase in traffic is slightly below 5%, with Barajas and El Prat growing overall one point less than that percentage. Among Aena’s other assets, Brazil is up 6% so far in 2025, as is Luton.
Assessment: Last month’s figures came as no surprise, with the expected moderation in growth from the double digits we saw a year ago continuing. We expect traffic in Spain to increase by 3.7% for 2025 as a whole, in line with Aena’s own guidance (3.5%). This guidance was confirmed by the company after the start of the tariff turmoil; it does not therefore appear that the traffic declines being reported in the US are affecting Spain, at least for the time being. After EBITDA growth of 16% in 2024, we believe that increases in this variable should also moderate, and we therefore estimate CAGR of 6% in 25-27, due to a relative cooling of the commercial business, where we may be overly conservative.
