Banco Sabadell | According to press reports,the Spanish Competition and Markets Commission (CNMC) has approved the draft gas network remuneration plan for 2027–2032 but is keeping it under wraps until after Naturgy and Enagás’s shareholder meetings this week. Early leaks indicate that the regulator would not reverse the cuts applied in 2021–2026. The companies view the new design as a “ticking time bomb” because the CNMC does not accept their demand forecasts, as it wants to prevent excessive compensation from increasing consumer bills.
Assessment: Pending further details, this is negative news for the gas distribution and transmission sector. Both drafts could be released before Easter. From there, there will be one month to submit comments. Within our coverage universe, the draft would directly affect Naturgy on the gas distribution side. While Enagás is not directly affected by this draft, it is affected by the methodology related to transmission, whose draft is also expected to be released shortly and which can be assumed to be just as ungenerous as this one.
Our base-case scenario for distribution would be consistent with the current framework, while for transmission, we anticipate the continuation of other incentives such as RCS (remuneration for continuity of supply) and an Opex allowance treatment equal to the unit rates (since actual costs today would be higher).
