The technology could significantly boost productivity by 2030, but this requires closing gaps in energy, connectivity, skills and institutional quality.
Artificial intelligence (AI) could enable developing countries to achieve in a decade what might otherwise take a century, according to the World Development Report 2026: The Promise of Artificial Intelligence, produced by the World Bank Group. The institution believes that the technology offers an opportunity to boost growth and productivity, although it warns that realising this potential will depend on governments’ ability to close key structural gaps.
The impact of AI on employment will be uneven. Jobs in high-income countries are three times more likely to be at risk of automation resulting from generative AI than those in low- and middle-income economies. In the latter, 4.5 per cent of existing jobs are at risk of automation, compared with 14.2 per cent in high-income countries.
However, the report highlights that the main opportunity for developing economies does not lie in replacing workers, but in increasing their productivity and skills. Some 16.2 per cent of jobs in these countries could see a significant increase in productivity thanks to AI, a proportion close to the 18.7 per cent forecast for high-income economies.
The World Bank notes that the technology is already helping to improve medical diagnoses, agricultural decision-making, business forecasting and the delivery of public services. AI could also help to strengthen tax collection, social programmes, education, healthcare and disaster response, particularly in countries where there is a shortage of qualified professionals or reliable records.
This opportunity is particularly significant given the weak economic performance of developing economies, which are experiencing their worst period of average growth in three decades. However, the institution warns that AI could also widen inequalities between and within countries if access to its benefits remains concentrated.
To prevent this, the report proposes a phased strategy based on adopting the available tools, adapting them to local needs and, subsequently, moving towards the development of cutting-edge AI. This will require investment in electricity, connectivity, local data, computing capacity and training.
These shortcomings are particularly evident in sub-Saharan Africa, where almost a third of rural schools still lack a reliable electricity supply and more than two-thirds do not have secure internet access. The World Bank considers addressing these shortcomings a priority in order to lay the foundations for digital inclusion.
Finally, the organisation emphasises the need to strengthen public trust through responsible use guidelines, data protection and mechanisms to detect and correct bias. The ability to harness AI will ultimately depend both on the available technology and on the strength of the infrastructure and institutions that underpin it.
