Stock market analysts have turned the annual central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole into a boiling pot of speculation regarding what message Fed Chair Janet Yellen will transmit. The markets are not expecting a rate hike in September, but are hoping for some guidance from Yellen’s speech today about how she sees the US economy, the key factor which will determine whether there will be a rate move before year-end.
The banking sector has more than one reason to complain about the ECB’s latest moves. In addition to the fact that zero interest rates are burying their margins, their lending business is now suffering the damaging effects of the central bank’s corporate sector purchase programme. This new measure has meant that many big companies are substituting bank financing with bond issues.
The main US stock indices (S&P 500 and the Nasdaq) are at record highs while the European bourses have lost over 10% in the year to date. And that’s despite the fact that they recovered almost all of their ‘Brexit’ losses in July. Such a disparate performance is not because US corporate profits have been better, as you might expect, but is due to other factors associated with more solid economic growth, a healthy jobs market and inflation-related gains.
The impact of Brexit on the markets has gone through different stages. There was the initial upheaval in the wake of the referendum result, which had its maximum effect on June 24 when the Ibex recorded its biggest ever fall. And now the stock market and European public debt yields have recovered to pre-Brexit levels.
Up to now, the balance of the ECB’s corporate debt purchase programme is more positive than negative. Since it started on June 8, the number of corporate debt issues in the eurozone has shot up, allowing for a decline in yields (positive).
Politicians’ promises are always idle talk. This makes it difficult to understand why some analysts showed their surprise when the Spanish government announced a €6 Bn rise in corporate taxes in order to meet Brussels goals just two weeks after general elections. Leaving aside strictly electoral reasons, Mariano Rajoy’s government had solid arguments to hike the levy to firms: corporate taxes are the only ones which have not returned to 2007 levels, gains being reduced by half.
Investors’ fears and their hunt for safe haven assets are having an unsuspected impact on European public debt yields: nearly two thirds of these securities are in negative territory; the German bund is beating a new record low on a daily basis and Spanish debt is approaching the minimum levels recorded in April 2015.
It will be difficult for Banco Popular’s shareholders to forget the date May 26th. The bank’s share price plummeted over 26%, the biggest fall in its history, after it announced plans for a 2.5 billion euros capital increase. It will also temporarily suspend paying a dividend.
Francisco López | BBVA chairman, Francisco Gonzalez, is the one who usually speaks out about the banking sector’s problems, without worrying too much about the criticisms he may receive. González was the one who most actively spoke out in international fora (in particular at the Institute of International Finance (IIF)’s spring meeting) about the bad situation of some of the savings banks, although by doing that he damaged the image of the whole Spanish banking sector.
Some drivers are so happy when they don’t have to pay their traffic fine immediately, but without realising that a few days they will receive official notification with a surcharge. Something like this has happened with Brussel’s decision to refrain from imposing an immediate fine on Spain for failing to meet its deficit commitment until June 26th. In exchange, the EC has demanded a tough adjustment amounting to 8 Bn€ over this year and next.