Santander | It is one of the first headlines from last night’s FOMC minutes. Fed staff members go from assigning a near 50% probability, to now forecasting a mild recession. With the Fed also nearing the end of the cycle, it is no surprise that some dissenting voices are beginning to appear, opening the door to new bouts of volatility that have not favoured the credit market (MOVE/Main correlation of…
UGT staff will take to the streets today in several autonomous communities – Andalusia, the Balearic Islands, Madrid, Valencia, the Basque Country, Extremadura and La Rioja – to demand that the union unblock the negotiation of its framework collective agreement, which expired in 2020 and has been extended in ‘ultraactividad‘ (automatic extension period provided for in collective agreements while a new one is being negotiated) since then. The union is…
Spain is currently the second country in the world with the second highest number of unpaid awards – amounting to 645 million euros – after Venezuela and ahead of Russia. The High Court of Australia has unanimously dismissed an appeal filed by Spain in an international dispute over awards issued by the ICSID, the World Bank’s arbitration body, linked to cuts made to renewables. As a result, some of Spain’s…
Alphavalue / Divacons | FCC Ambito, a subsidiary of FCC Servicios Medio Ambiente, and Iberdrola, through its Perseo Venture Builder programme, will work with Glencore to provide industrial-scale lithium-ion battery recycling solutions in the Iberian Peninsula through the development of a specialised facility, the three companies announced yesterday. At the factory, whose location is yet to be defined, these energy storage devices could find a second life. Recycling of battery…
Renta 4 : European stock markets open almost flat (Eurostoxx futures -0.2%, S&P futures 0%), on a day in which the main reference will be the US March inflation data (2:30pm). The market expects further moderation in headline CPI (5.1%e vs 6% year-on-year), but a rebound in core CPI (5.6%e vs 5.5% previously) after five consecutive months of decline from a peak of 6.6%. We will see its impact on…
Bankinter: Investors’ confidence in economic activity improves, although it still remains in negative territory. The Sentix Index rises more than expected in April to -8.7 from -11.1 previously and -10.1 estimated. The improvement is driven by the Current Situation component (-4.3 from -9.3). The Expectations Component remains stable at -13. This is the sixth consecutive improvement in the Current Situation Component. On a monthly basis, Sentix surveys more than 1,300…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is currently in Beijing with a huge official and business delegation. His goals are clear: first and foremost, bringing growth opportunities to Brazil, whose economy has been battered by the Covid pandemic. Brazilian exports of commodities into China have ballooned since Beijing’s fiscal binge in 2008 that led to pent-up demand for commodities. More recently, Brazil’s large lithium reserves,…
Alphavalue / Divacons | Last week the Spanish hotel chain was very optimistic about what will happen this Easter, in which after the recovery of tourism at international level, Meliã expects to improve the sales data recorded in 2019 by more than 20%. Particularly noteworthy are some national destinations such as the Canary Islands, where hotels have improved their occupancy and reached historic average figures. This was revealed by Meliã’s…
Bankinter | CPI falls back in March to +0.7% year-on-year from +1.0% and Industrial Prices remain negative at -2.5% year-on-year. This is the lowest CPI reading since September 2021 and Industrial Prices (IPP) since June 2020. The CPI Underlying Rate stands at +0.7% year-on-year from +0.6% previously. Analysis: Consumer and producer price inflation remains at exceptionally low levels in China. CPI has remained below the government’s target of +3% for…
Morgan Stanley | The probability of recession especially in the US has increased for most investors in recent weeks. Indeed, our analyst Ellen Zentner has revised her growth estimates downwards (on a 4Q/4Q basis): -10bps for 2023 (to 0.3%) and -20bps in 2024 (to 1%). Even in the case of avoiding technical recession, the impact on the labour market would be unavoidable: the macro team expects new jobs to be…