After being arrested by Japanese authorities on Monday for alleged fiscal fraud, Carlos Ghosn, Chairman of Nissan and CEO of Renault has been temporarily suspended at the head of the company and remains chairman “temporarily incapacitated”. The greater integration of the alliance between Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi is now left in the air. Furthermore, it generates uncertainty in relation to the corporate governance practices of the alliance.
A disagreement on Brexit is a possibility. In this environment it is fair to point out that companies in the UK focused on the local market do not seem too worried about the negative aspects of this scenario, such as UK GDP growth. Strategists at Alphavalue have analysed the performance of 22 UK shares with distinctively domestic “flavour”.
Esty Dwek (Natixis IM) | The Italian budget standoff comes under scrutiny again this week, as the European Commission could start its ‘excessive deficit procedure’ on Wednesday, since Italy hasn’t changed its 2.4% budget deficit and 1.5% growth forecasts for 2019.
DWS | Sometimes, it is better to remain silent than to speak up and remove all doubt about your ignorance. Having been inundated by comments on what to make of the latest twist in the Brexit drama, however, we too feel compelled to add our bit. Amidst all the recent turbulence, we believe three conclusions can already be drawn, none of them particularly comfortable for British financial markets.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
Santander | In terms of stock market behavior, the Spanish market has lost the last decade. The Ibex35 today trades 2% below its level of 2008 and the PSI20 does it 25% below (a behavior even more negative than that of the Italian market, which has fallen by 11% in this period), in a clear contrast with the revaluation of 50% of the EuroStoxx in this period and 237% of the S&P500.
By David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Over the last few months, we have written, spoken, and tweeted incessantly about the coming headwinds to both the global economy and the capital markets. In July we noted that despite the current macroeconomic momentum, there are many factors that are likely to hamper growth by the time we get to late 2019 or 2020. These include tighter monetary policy that will actually begin to pinch growth, fading tax-cut and fiscal stimulus (especially if the Democrats take the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections), continued trade and export headwinds, a Brexit supply-shock to the UK and EU, and so on.
By Cao Wenjiao and Denise Jia via Caixin | After years of booming growth, China’s real estate sector, a major pillar of the world’s second-largest economy, is wobbling.
Intermoney | According to the global bank lobbying group IIF, global debt in 2Q18 fell by $ 1.5 trillion to $ 247 trillion thanks to the reduction between the financial sector and the governments of developed countries. Global debt fell to 317% of GDP, a figure that differs from the one provided by institutions such as the IMF due to the different treatment of information.
The Conversation | A draft agreement on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union has been reached between representatives of both sides, alongside an Outline Political Declaration on a future relationship. It remains to be seen whether the British government is able to survive, and gain parliamentary support for the deal. Here, though, academic experts consider what adoption of the 585-page draft Withdrawal Agreement would mean. Read about its implications for Northern Ireland, citizens, sovereignty, the transition, the UK economy and the EU.