JP Marin-Arrese │ Trump’s volatile mood is wreaking carnage on investors’ confidence. It is a fact that the White House tenant longs to trigger huge uncertainty, even panic, among investors. Yet, by brushing away any hope to strike a truce with China he has outdone himself.
Miguel Navascués | Central banks announcements are better than nothing, but may not be enough. In my opinion, the central message of Keynes is that, for those taking investment decisions, the future cannot be reduced to a risk calculus formula, because there is always a zone of uncertainty (by definition incalculable) which influences spending decisions: consumption, but, above all, productive investment.
BBVA Research | After slightly disappointing in the second quarter of 2019, Spanish economic growth could be around 0.5% quarter on quarter in the third quarter. Downward pressure on growth and job creation.
By Sara B. Potter, CFA | Signs are multiplying of an industrial activity slowdown. Now that the current U.S. economic expansion is on record as the longest in post-war history (10 years and counting), we are seeing an uptick in the predictions of an inevitable recession.
Baker McKenzie | Domestic M&As in Spain have significantly increased in value. According to an analysis of M&A activity by Baker McKenzie, in the first half of 2019 272 operations were completed for a value of 5.49 Bn$ compared to the 295 transactions for a value of 3.984 Bn$ completed in the first half of 2018.
Caixabank Research | The Spanish housing sector is entering a more mature phase in the cycle, characterised by a weakening in growth in demand and prices. The factors which support the expansion of the housing market (creation of employment, favourable financial conditions and elevated external demand) continue evolving positively but are losing dynamism.
Jose Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | In the years prior to Trump´s arrival in the White House, exchange rates had lost their importance in central bank strategy, especially in large economies like the Eurozone and US.
Renta4 | The oil company has returned to the market for the first time since May 2017, closing an issue of 8 year bonds for 750 M€ at a price of 99.684% and fixed annual coupon of 0.25%, whose trading admission will be sought in the Luxembourg stock market.
BofAML | A new Asset Purchase Programme may need new asset classes and the EUR460bn bank bond market fits that bill. We see bank bond buying as immensely complex and involving elevated levels of moral hazard. A market already featuring negative yields and Greek Tier 2 issuance does not need ECB intervention to function
According to data from the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism, Spain´s trade deficit in May 2019 rose to 13.179 Bn€, an increase of 8.6% yoy. In this period, the coverage rate (exports compared to imports) was 90.3%, compared to 90.8% in May 2018.