James Alexander via Historinhas | There is only monetary policy, defined as the value of money relative to real goods and services. All else is just tools: official short term policy rates, IOER, targeting or guidance, QE, fiscal policy. In the “monetary offset”, the tool of expansionary fiscal policy is offset if the overarching policy tool is inflation targeting.
PARIS | Francesco Saraceno | What I’d like to express here is my jealousy for the discussions (and the confrontation) that we observe in the US about rate rises. These discussions are a sideproduct, a very positive one if you ask me, of the institutional design of the Fed.
Fernando Barciela | The central bank has put QE in place, a trillion euros asset purchase programme, but inflation has returned to negative territory. Has the ECB’s strategy failed? Are critics right when they say it does too little, too late.
JOHN BRUTON | An agreement between the US and European Union would have benefits for both sides of the Atlantic. For example, it would open the US Federal, State and local governments market to European tenders, who are now discriminated against by “buy America” rules, which deliver poor value to US taxpayers.
UBS | We believe China and Japan will play significant roles as regional economic patrons over the next few years. We estimate the amount of patro – dollars, namely China’s outward direct investment in the ‘One Belt One Road’ regions, will exceed US$200bn in 2016 – 18.
BARCLAYS | Repsol’s 2016-2020 strategy presentation set out the resilience of its integrated business model with a shift to a focus on value from the previous growth focused strategy. The company expects to be free cashflow breakeven after dividends at $50/bl Brent over the 2016-2020 period with the breakeven likely to be $60/bl in 2016/17 before falling to $45/bl in 2018- 2020.
The indicators on credit risk are showing clear signs of improvement. The NPL ratio for the whole of the banking system fell to 11.0% in June (vs 12.5% in December 2014), the lowest level since April 2013.
UBS | The earnings season is right around the corner. We have seen pricing and utilization pressure begin again due to the continued weakness in oil prices and the U.S . rig count. The oil service industry will still remain structurally challenged throughout 2016 and into 2017.
The direct impact of the global slowdown in Spain is being offset by the positive indirect effects on private consumption. High GDP growth rates will be maintained in 2015 and 2016, but these will moderate progressively, with economic growth seen falling to 2.8% from 3.1% in 2015 as reported by Bank of Spain last week.