Worst August for Spanish car sales since 2008
According the association of carmakers (Anfac), sellers (Ganvam) and concessions (Faconauto), sales of new cars and SUVs in Spain fell 30.8% year on year in August to 74,490 vehicles.
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Iberdrola enters the Stoxx 50; Santander remains; Telefonica and BBVA leave
Bankinter | Iberdrola will enter the Stoxx 50 index on 23 September. The Spanish electricity company will form part of the Stoxx 50 index which groups together the 50 largest companies in 17 European countries, including Switzerland and the UK.
The unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis
Niel Dwane (Allianz GI) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
Disruption in the Eurozone: Challenges of an Arranged Marriage
By Nicola Mai (PIMCO)| Just as the hope in an arranged marriage is that people will fall in love, the hope 20 years ago was that the currency union would foster fiscal and political integration. So far, the European project hasn’t delivered what many had hoped, although the marriage is still holding.
Brexit: the Spartans won in the end
Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa Group | Our key assumption is that Boris Johnson wants a deal, just a different one. That is in itself complex, but not yet impossible to achieve and get passed. If he is reconciled with the possibility of no deal, then the outlook is much grimmer. At this stage we want to believe that rhetorics should not be taken at face value. It is a close call. It has been our long-standing view that any resolution on Brexit is likely to entail elections – with the uncertainty it entails. We think the latest events have raised this probability.
Even if a US recession is avoided, the S&P 500 could fall by as much as 10-15%
Experts at UBP believe that fiscal stimulus or, more effectively, fiscal- monetary coordination presents the most potent upside catalyst to risk-assets.
Office rents in Madrid are yet to reach previous peak levels
The capital of Spain is one of the most cyclical markets in Europe and rents are still far from the previous peaks. According to Morgan Stanley, there is more upward potential in values with exposure to offices in Madrid. Besides, Spain is expected to grow above the European average.
Bad News All Around for Steve Bannon
Peter Isackson via Fair observer | Though Steve Bannon’s English hero, Boris Johnson, is (momentarily) in charge of the chaos in the UK, his Italian champion, Matteo Salvini, is out.
Brexit: Definitely, Maybe
Chris Iggo (Axa IM) | Suddenly the Brexit stakes have been raised. Prime Minister Johnson has made a call that convincing the world that he is prepared to leave the EU without a deal and that he is prepared to take risks with democratic and parliamentary convention are worth it if it results in the UK and the EU reaching a compromise withdrawal agreement before October 31st. It is a gamble and the tactics are being challenged by both political and public responses. Yet an alternative course of action is hard to see given the lack of credible anti-no-deal strategies so far. If Johnson’s bet pays off, the UK leaves the EU with a deal, sterling rallies, and confidence to the economic outlook can return. If not, economic and political chaos will continue and probably worsen. I said I would adhere to “Sober September” – that might prove to be very challenging!
Fishing in the choppy waters of the German stock market
Alexander Lippert (MainFirst) | The indirect effects of the current uncertainty caused by the US-China trade war are slowly extending to all levels of the German economy, which is beginning to be felt in the deterioration in growth, weak PMIs and the repercussions in export industries. It is also being felt in the German stock market.