Julius Baer Research | In the six weeks since the last Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the world has been shaken by several events. Despite rallying equity markets, investors stay rattled and filled with unease. Yet in the US, news on the economic front has been mainly positive. Indicators such as the June employment report, retail sales, housing starts, capacity utilization and the service industry have all beaten expectations.
The financial web Bondvigilantes offers a precise review of the details of Mario Draghi’s magic words from four years ago: “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough”.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Investors believe that the decision to cut UK interest rates again has only really been postponed. They also believe that it is only a matter of time before the ECB cuts the deposit rate again at the same time as it extends the deadline for asset purchases which is initially set for March 2017.
James Alexander | It’s been lonely blogging that the Euro Area economy was not nearly as bad as consensus reckons, even consensus amongst our fellow Market Monetarists. But the data has consistently shown Euro Area NGDP growth doing better, and at least as good as the long-term average.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The central banks really need some new arguments for extending their current expansionary monetary policy. As well as for not withdrawing some of the existing measures. The alternative is to get carried away.
BofAML | BoE’s decision to hold rates looks like a policy mistake. But one they can rectify quickly, at their August 4 meeting. We expect a 25bp rate cut, credit easing and potentially a QE salvo. We expect slightly less than we thought before yesterday’s meeting. A properly combined fiscal and monetary push seems unlikely: a fiscal stimulus will take longer to design, and may be limited given budget constraints.
There has been an increasing reduction in the pricing of corporate loans in Spain. Currently loan pricing is at 2010 lows, according to the Bank of Spain’s May bulletin.
Julius Baer Research | The past years’ least loved commodity has made a silent comeback. Coal prices are up more than 30% from the earlier year lows. Northwest European coal import prices, the leading benchmark, trade above USD 55 per tonne. The comeback is in part related to the oil and natural gas price rally.
The European Central Bank kept its interest rates and policy plans unchanged on Thursday and said the immediate stress caused to markets by Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union had been contained.
This week Inditex approved the appointment of Baroness Denise Kingsmill to its board of directors, as well as a long-term incentive plan, in cash and shares, for up to 600 company executives, including chairman Pablo Isla. The company also said it will not alter any plans it has for the UK despite Brexit.