George Soros via Caixin | Europe’s leaders must seize the moment to push forward reforms that can reshape the EU into an organization that people want to be a part of. Until the British public voted to leave the European Union, the refugee crisis was the greatest problem Europe faced. Indeed, that crisis played a critical role in bringing about the greater calamity of Brexit.
via Macropolis | You are the outgoing British prime minister, responsible for calling a needless referendum whose result will – at best – lead to a painful realignment in your country’s relations with the rest of Europe and the wider world. What is your last action in Parliament? A moment of reflection about the decades of carefully constructed ties with EU member states and institutions that will now be overturned?
Julius Baer Research| Thanks to significant fiscal support measures, China was able to keep its annual growth rate stable at 6.7% and even accelerate its quarterly expansion rate from 1.2% to 1.8% in Q2 2016. China has several options to manage the expected slowdown ahead: fiscal spending, interest-rate cuts and renminbi devaluation will be able to limit the cyclical risks ahead.
AXA IM | Companies have re-leveraged their balance sheets since the global financial crisis (GFC), driven by low borrowing costs. Although heightened, corporate leverage is not currently excessive in developed markets, although we see signs of concern in emerging markets. In this note we assess whether we should be concerned about corporate leverage at current levels.
The Spanish wind energy company will start to operate in the Dutch market with an agreement to provide 11 MW and has also signed other five in France, Italy and Greece to install about 72 MW. Gamesa Dutch project entails replacing old turbines in different wind farms –three G58-850 kW units and ten G52-850 kW units.
The next general election in the United Kingdom will take place in 2020. If the Article 50 notice is served in 2017, it is possible that the process of UK withdrawal from the European Union (EU) will not be concluded before the election. That might allow the UK electorate to take a second look at their decision on June 23 to leave the EU.
BofAML | We have been among the most bearish on Euro Area inflation, expecting 0.9% post-Brexit inflation in 2017, versus consensus at 1.3%. This also applies to core inflation, where we expect a very mild trend over the next two years that would leave core inflation slightly above 1% by 2018. Still, markets are pricing declining inflation over the next few years.
Despite the rumours, top Spanish Bank Santander -Eurozone’s 2nd largest by market cap- will indeed complete this year the merger of its asset management fund (Santander AM) with Pioneer Investments, Italian UniCredit’s subsidiary, once the operation meets the regulatory and legal requirements. A EUR5.3 bn deal that has been simmering for more than 20 months.
James Alexander via Historinhas | One of Scott Sumner’s great contributions to economics (blogging) has been his oft-repeated mantra of “not reasoning from a price change”. Probably its most familiar usage is related to the oil price, although there are many, many more.
Last week the Council decided that Spain and Portugal’s recent efforts to reduce deficit were not enough. This lead to the two countries being fined, the first time this happens since the inception of the euro.