UBS | June 2, 2015 | Although hotel companies need to be vigilant to the digital threat, they are coping well if EBIT margins are anything to go by. In our view, Google remains the biggest potential disruptive force in the online space.
The Corner | June 1, 2015 | Spain Manufacturing PMI Index, designed to measure the performance of the manufacturing economy, rose to 55.8 in May from 54.2 in April: the strongest improvement in business conditions in the country in eight years, according to Markit.
The Corner | June 1, 2015 | Italian risk premium (136.5 bp) should probably come down and be lower than the Spanish one (135 bp) this week despite PM Matteo Renzi’s set back in the country’s regional elections on Sunday, experts at Bankinter commented. (Chart above: Italy Generic Govt 10Y Yield by Bloomberg.)
LONDON | May 30, 2015 | Cristina Marzea (CFA) | All the buzz these days is about digital banking: will banks lose business to disruptive entrants, or will they fight back and embark on a massive digital revolution which will see the branch concept become obsolete. Not all EMs are the same – this refers to levels of bancarisation, credit penetration, technology and mobile adoption, as well as the competitive banking landscape that shapes where each banking market is in the technology cycle.
Barclays | The ECB’s April data on monetary aggregates and bank balance sheets show a surge in money growth, but bank lending dynamics is still subdued and the annual growth rate of loans to the private sector (adjusted for sales and securitisations) remained at 0.8%
LONDON | May 29, 2015 | By Fabio Fois (Barclays) | Given the large number of voters involved (slightly less than half those involved in last year’s European elections) and local governments contested, we believe the Italian elections represent an important test for the government and the structural reform agenda implemented so far.
The Corner | May 28, 2014 | The energy poverty index tripled in Spain from 2007 to 2013. Despite the country’s better macro outlook, one in ten households are currently struggling to heat themselves in the winter, do not own a TV set or simply cannot pay their bills, according to a report. Spain is the 4th EU country with higher electricity prices, says Eurostat.
Iris Mir | China continues to struggle to avoid being swallowed by the challenges that stifle its stagnant economy while developing a new monetary policy. The IMF applauded the steps taken so far and no longer considers the RMB an undervalued currency. However China remains too cautious in its monetary reforms. Risking the country’s ambitions of further internationalize the RMB and the joining of IMF’s cherished Special Drawing Rights Basket.
LONDON | May 28, 2015 | By Fabrice Montagne (Barclays) | The measures announced on Wednesday are not new but were already extensively discussed in the press or during the campaign and were mostly included in the Conservative manifesto. By making a selection and a ranking of all the possible bills, the Queen’s Speech nonetheless provides necessary clarification on the government’s priorities over the next 12 months.
BEIJING | May 27, 2015 | By Caixin Editorial Team | Emerging economies have been bracing themselves for a rise in U.S. interest rates. Last week, the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in April sparked another round of speculation about when the rate hike might begin. Most now expect a start date in December, rather than September.