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Amadeus

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 15th November 2022

Downward revision in Amadeus to take into account a more complicated macro backdrop; Hold (T.P. 58,5 vs 63,50 euros/share)

Renta 4 | Q3 figures have consolidated the trend towards a recovery of 2019 levels. The decline in revenues is close to one digit: -13% vs Q3’19 (-17% in Q2), EBITDA: -20%, also improves, +4pp vs Q2 (ex German government aid). That said, this recovery has been held back by disruptions in European airports and travel restrictions in Asia. Recovery continues in Q4, at a slow pace Reservations show a…

Aena

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 15th November 2022

With almost 24 M trips, Aena’s air traffic figures in October were down just 3% on 2019

Intermoney | Aena (Hold, T.P. 140 euros/share) announced is traffic figures for October on Friday. The company managed almost 24 million trips, 3% less than the same month in 2019. Last month, the dichotomy between the tourist airports continued. Palma (+5%) and Lanzarote (+11%)’s figures were well above pre-pandemic levels, while Barajas and El Prat airports’ figures are still on average 10% below those levels. In the year to date,…

Colonial

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 14th November 2022

The Socimis are already trading at big discounts of 55%-65% to NAV due to rate hikes: BUY Colonial

Bankinter |The Spanish Socimis are facing a more than foreseeable downward adjustment to the value of their assets (GAV), in light of the hike in interest rates in the last few months and the potential recession. This decrease in the valuation of their portfolios will have an impact on accounting profit and on leverage, which could already be reflected in certain areas at end-year. Our analyst team’s view: Negative news,…

Arcelor Mittal

Companies, European economy, Ibex 14th November 2022

Problems related to demand worsen for ArcelorMittal due to a persistent de-stocking in Europe

Morgan Stanley | Arcelor’s conference call focused on the outlook for the business, on Q4 results, on the dynamics of the working capital and returns on capital. Our economist Alain Gabriel highlights the following issues: The problems surrounding demand are worsening due to a persistent de-stocking in Europe, which Alain expects to further exacerbate in Q4.EBITDA 4Q: fewer deliveries and lower prices are offset (partly) by lower variable costs. Energy coverage…

Iberdrola

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 14th November 2022

Iberdrola estimates €47 billion investments to 2025; but 57% will be earmarked for networks, 38% for renewables vs previous plan

Renta 4 | Against the current backdrop of uncertainty, Iberdrola has decided to make a small a shift in its investments’ strategy, giving increased priority to investment in networks vs renewables, with respect to the firm’s previous plan. In the period 2023-2025, it estimates investing 47 billion euros (84% for growth). This is very similar to the investments forecast in the previous plan, although 57% will be earmarked for networks…

Cellnex

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 13th November 2022

Cellnex EBITDA up 23% at €654 M; guidance confirmed

Bankinter | Revenues up 26% at 881 million euros (vs 874 million estimated); adjusted EBITDA up 23% at 654 million euros (vs 658 million estimated) and recurrent cash flow 330 million euros (vs 328 million estimated). Bankinter analyst team’s view: Ther results are in line with estimates and confirm the company’s medium-term guidance (2025). We see a neutral impact on the share price. We maintain our Buy stance. Target Price 52,93…

energy sector

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 13th November 2022

Tax on energy firms could mean €400 M for Endesa, €300 M for Iberdrola and €200 M for Naturgy

Norbolsa | The government has unveiled its proposal for temporary special taxes on energy firms. The tax would mean a charge of 1.2% on revenues in 2022 and 2023 and payment would start in 2022. We estimate the following impact in 2022e for the big Spanish utilities: Endesa 400 million euros, Iberdrola 300-320 million and Naturgy 160-200 million. The impact is a guideline, given that we still do not have…

Repsol-Alaska

Companies, Ibex, World economy 12th November 2022

Repsol boosts natural gas production, strengthens its position in US

Link Securities | Repsol has strengthened its offensive in the US to boost its natural gas output. According to sources consulted by el Economista.es, the group has reached an agreement with Australia’s Santos-Oil Search to take a 49% stake in a total of 46 exploration blocks in Alaska. At the same time, the Spanish oil and gas company has acquired a mining area from Abarta in the Marcellus basin and…

CaixaBank

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 12th November 2022

The end of TLTRO would not lead to deposit war amongst Spanish banks: liquidity coverage ratios are at 233%; Caixabank top pick

Morgan Stanley | Spanish banks have underperformed 8% since their results, despite having beat NII estimates by 4%. The market is pricing in a slowdown in NII due to the increase in the costs of deposits with the end of the TLTRO and the start of competition anticipating what we are seeing in the US. Alvaro Serrano considers this to be an inaccurate analysis, given that the situation in the…

iberdrolaTC

Companies, European economy, Ibex 10th November 2022

Iberdrola teams up with Axa to develop four offshore wind parks in France

Renta 4 | Iberdrola would have reached an agreement with Axa for the development of four offshore wind farms in France, with a total of 1.750MW. Via the agreement, the French firm would have a minority stake in the event the projects are awarded to Iberdrola in the auctions expected to take place in 2023. The implementation is planned for 2030. Valuation: This is a repeat of the strategy of…