European economy

BCE noche

Some ECB Council members indicate inflation projections could be revised downwards

BancaMarch: Members of the ECB Council expect the new inflation projections published next March to be revised downwards. The current December forecasts foresee 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, without breaching the 2% red line until 2026 with expected inflation of 1.9%. However, the ECB indicates that these data could be more favourable, reaching the target level as early as 2025. While this is good news, the monetary authority…


alemania recesion

Germany falls by 0.3% in 2023, after +1.8% in 2022, confirming entry into recession and Eurozone weakness

Banca March: Yesterday confirmed the entry into recession of the German economy in 2023. Germany’s GDP fell by 0.3% for the year as a whole, after +1.8% in 2022, hurt by high inflation, rising interest rates and high energy costs. We highlight the negative performance of industry, down 2%, despite the positive contribution of the automotive sector and the manufacture of other transport equipment. There was also minimal growth in…


Arcelor Mittal

ArcelorMittal could sell 40% stake in Acciaierie d’Italia, and potentially increase buybacks programme and reduce leverage

Morgan Stanley | Alain Gabriel highlights the news published by La Republicca that ArcelorMittal would be looking to sell its 40% stake in Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI), which has been underperforming (<4mta vs ~10mta). ADI’s earnings are not reported under Arcelor’s EBITDA, but under those of the Associates and JVs. Alain Gabriel estimates that EBIDA attributable to ADI was US$170mn in 2022. The article reported that Arcelor wanted to sell its…


airbus A320

Airbus delivery and order data show supply chain continues to improve while demand remains strong

The aerospace company last week reported 112 aircraft deliveries in December (vs. 64 in November ’23 and vs. 98 in December ’22), bringing the total in 2023 to 735 (vs 661 in 2022; +11%). Airbus thus beat the delivery target of 720 aircraft in ’23, also exceeding expectations (725 BS(e) aircraft). In addition, a total of 807 new orders and 108 cancellations were recorded during the month. Considering cancellations, net…


Alemania PIB

German industrial production falls for sixth consecutive month

Bankinter: Industrial Production in November was worse than expected: -4.8% year-on-year versus -4.0% expected and -3.4% previously (revised from -3.5%). In monthly data: -0.7% month-on-month against +0.3% expected and -0.3% previously (revised from -0.4%). Bankinter assessment: Weak data. This is the sixth consecutive decline of the indicator in annual rate and reflects that the weakness of the manufacturing sector is still present. The slowdown in demand in a context of…


Airbus 320

Airbus offers between €1.5 and €1.8 billion for Atos Big Data and security business

Link Securities | French IT company Atos has released a statement explaining that European aeronautics giant Airbus (AIR) has offered between €1.5 billion and €1.8 billion for its Big Data and Security business. The acquisition of BDS could significantly accelerate AIR’s digital transformation and enhance the company’s defence and security portfolio with strong capabilities in cyber, advanced computing and artificial intelligence, AIR said. Discussions continue on the price to be…


alemania empleo

German unemployment rate reaches 5.9% in December, highest since May 2021

Link Securities | As released yesterday by the German Federal Employment Agency, Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.9% in December from a revised 5.8% in November, bringing the reading in line with the FactSet consensus of analysts. December’s is the highest unemployment rate since May 2021. The number of unemployed rose by 5,000 from November to 2.703 million in December, making it the eleventh consecutive month of rising…


BCE Atril

Credit demand remains very weak and credit standards tighten significantly

Link Securities | As published on Tuesday by the ECB, the monetary aggregate M3 declined 0.9% in the month of November at a year-on-year rate (-1.0% in October), slightly more than the 0.7% drop expected by the FactSet consensus of analysts. M1, which includes demand deposits, fell by 9.5% year-on-year in November, down from 10.0% in the previous month. The breakdown showed continued weakness in credit dynamics. The year-on-year growth…


Logista libros

Logista cements European expansion and position in pharmaceutical distribution with €8m acquisition of Belgium Parcels Service

Alphavalue/ Divacons| The company, one of the largest logistics operators in Europe, announced yesterday to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) the acquisition of Belgium Parcels Service (BPS), a company specialising in the express distribution of pharmaceutical parcels in Belgium and Luxembourg. The Europa Press agency indicated that the acquisition of 100% of BPS has been executed for a value of approximately €8 million, subject to the closing of the…


ING

ING to stop funding oil and gas extraction by 2040 and aims to triple funding for renewables by 2025

Alphavalue / Divacons| The Dutch financial institution announced new targets in its energy transition financing strategy. The bank will stop financing oil and gas extraction by 2040 and aims to triple financing for renewables by 2025. This is a step forward from the previous policy adopted by the bank last year, which sought to end financing for new oil and gas fields and restrict financing to any related infrastructure. On…