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European economy, In Europe 10th October 2025

ECB minutes suggest cycle of rate cuts over, despite continuing impact of US tariffs

Bankinter | ECB minutes from the 10/11 September meeting. Conclusions: Monetary policy is appropriate to respond to the inflation environment in the EMU and the ECB is in a comfortable position to wait for more visibility on fiscal and trade policies. Everything points to the cycle of cuts having ended for now, even if US tariffs continue to impact growth and prices: ‘the current level of interest rates is sufficiently…

In Europe 9th October 2025

Germany improves growth forecasts for 2025 while foreign sector continues to decline

Bankinter | Germany’s trade balance for August increases to €17.2 billion versus €16.3 billion (revised from €14.7 billion). Exports fell by 0.5% versus the rise of 0.2% expected against a 0.2% drop previously (revised from 0.6% down). Imports contracted by 1.3% versus a drop of 0.5% expected against a drop of 0.7% (revised from 0.1% down). Analysis team’s view: The increase in the balance is explained by the more pronounced…

European economy, In Europe 7th October 2025

Eurozone retail sales grow 1% year-on-year in August, compared to 2.1% previously

Bankinter | Retail sales in the Eurozone in August were lower than expected: up 1.0% year-on-year compared to the expected 1.3% and the previous 2.1% (revised from 2.2%). Noteworthy is the decline in France (which recorded a drop of 1.4% against a 1.2% gain previously) and Germany (up 1.8% against 2.9% previously). Analysis team’s view: Despite the weakness of the data, EMU retail sales have fluctuated within a stable year-on-year…

European economy, In Europe 3rd October 2025

Eurozone unemployment rate rises to 6.3% in August, aggregate increase of 11,000 workers

Intermoney | The unemployment rate rose by one tenth of a percentage point in August to 6.3% across the Eurozone as a whole. We could have guessed this once we saw the data, which was somewhat unfavourable and showed an increase of 14,000 in the number of unemployed. At the aggregate level for the eurozone, this increase was 11,000, offset by other more moderate readings. However, we continue to see…

In Europe 2nd October 2025

EC could announce tariffs on imported steel and reduce current quotas next week

Bankinter | The European Commission could announce tariffs on imported steel and reduce current quotas next week, according to press reports. The European Commission could establish a permanent mechanism to raise tariffs on imported steel and reduce current quotas and tariffs, which could reach 50% on imports exceeding those quotas. Bankinter analysis team’s view: If confirmed, this would be good news for companies with a presence in Europe, which would…

In Europe 1st October 2025

France’s preliminary CPI rises 1.2% year-on-year compared to 0.9% in August

Bankinter | Preliminary CPI rises less than expected in September. Year-on-year 1.2% versus 1.3% expected versus 0.9% in August. In month-on-month terms, negative 1.0% versus negative 0.9% versus a rise of 0.4% previously. Producer prices rise (year-on-year) 0.1% versus 0.5% previously (revised from 0.4%). In month-on-month terms, down 0.2% versus 0.5% previously (revised from increase of 0.4%). Finally, consumer spending (year-on-year) fell 0.8% versus 0.3% expected and 0.4% previously (revised…

In Europe 26th September 2025

Germany’s business climate index, compiled by IFO institute, falls to 87.7 points in September

Link Securities | Germany’s business climate index, compiled by the IFO institute, fell to 87.7 points in September from 88.9 points in August, significantly below the 89.2 points expected by FactSet analysts. September’s reading is the lowest for this index since last May. It also represents the sharpest monthly decline in the last 12 months, reflecting growing pessimism among German companies.In September, the sub-index reflecting German companies’ expectations fell to…

In Europe 23rd September 2025

Fitch raises Italy’s rating from “BBB” to “BBB+” with “stable” outlook, first improvement in country’s credit rating since 2021

Link Securities | Last Friday, credit rating agency Fitch announced that it had raised Italy’s debt rating from “BBB” to “BBB+” with a “stable” outlook. This is the first improvement in the country’s credit rating since 2021. The upward revision of the rating represents international recognition of greater confidence in the budgetary trajectory, supported by increased fiscal prudence and a strong commitment to achieving the short- and medium-term objectives of…

In Europe 22nd September 2025

Germany approves first budget after relaxing fiscal rules with €116 billion total planned investment

Norbolsa | On Thursday, the German parliament approved the first budget after the radical reforms carried out at the beginning of the year to relax fiscal rules, including record investment to stimulate the economy in tandem with a commitment to increase defence spending. The budget includes a total investment of €116 billion, made possible by the €500 billion infrastructure fund and the exemption from considering defence spending as debt approved…

European economy, In Europe 19th September 2025

ECB forecasts lower wage pressures for coming months

Bankinter | The ECB’s Wage Tracker shows an expected wage increase of 1.7% for the first half of 2026 against 2.1% in the second half of 2025 and 4.3% in the first half of 2025. Analysis team’s view: Good news for inflation in Europe. The ECB’s Wage Tracker is a tool developed by the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem to monitor wage pressures in the euro…

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