Julia Pastor | From an English father and a Ghanaian mother, Afua Hirsch is a journalist, writer, lawyer and activist for human rights. Her first book, “Brit (ish): On race, identity and belonging”, published current year, has stirred UK historic consciousness by exploring the origin of the identity crisis that the country is suffering, and which, no doubt, has its reflection on the winding road of Brexit.
via The Conversation | The cabinet has stepped up contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, with departments across Whitehall charged with making this a priority. Although all indications are that there is no majority in parliament for leaving without a deal, it remains a distinct possibility if no other deal can be passed before the March 29 deadline (assuming that Article 50 is not extended).
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | The component of Greece’s gross domestic product (GDP) that experienced the most precipitous collapse during the crisis was investments. At its peak in the third quarter of 2007, gross fixed capital formation represented more than quarter of Greek GDP, at 27.4%. By the second quarter of 2015, it had plummeted to just 10.5 %. It partially recovered to nearly 15 % at the end of last year but in the latest quarter of 2018 it dropped again to 10.8%.
The “yellow vests” (gilets jaunes) movement made the French government panic and change its budgetary policy, setting a new deficit for 2019 of 3.5%, which now seems possible.
Ofelia Marín- Lozano | The intervention of the ECB in sovereign bond markets stopped the rise in the internal rate of return on the periphery countries bonds, Spain and Italy. But it didn’t stop the flight to what had become the main asset of safety, German bonds, whose IRR continued falling until the nominal returns were negative.
Ultimately, May’s deal represents a compromise of the vague objectives for Brexit. However, Brexit has never been about compromise and with both sides of the debate envisaging different outcomes to the process, neither appear about to make concessions now. In this context, analysts at AXA IM continue to see the ‘most likely’ outcome as a compromise, similar in substance to the current Agreement.
If both parties do reach an agreement over the Italian budget, eurozone bond and equity markets will have something to celebrate.
Donato Ndongo-Bidyogo | George Orwell used to say that “jokes are small revolutions”. What self-respecting autocrat does not have his collection of jokes? Franco, Stalin, Hitler… Simple scape valve of fears and hopes, this modest revenge helps to cope with the absurdity that life can become.
Tristan de Bourbon (London) | House prices have been falling in the British capital for two years. The reason: the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, which have joined the increase in stamp duty and interest rates. On the other hand, prices are increasing significantly in regions of the country which have been ignored in recent years.
In less than a month, France’s gilets jaunes (yellow vests) have gone from being a celebrated example of Facebook’s ability to power a spontaneous revolution to a cautionary tale of how social networks can be manipulated by outsiders to provoke outrage and sow dissent.