James Alexander via Historinhas | It is reported that 90% of UK economists are in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. They have carefully considered the costs and benefits of the UK leaving and mostly decided the economic loss is great, up to 8% of RGDP by 2030 – or around 0.5% per year for the next 14 years.
via Macropolis | In a quote some attribute to ancient Greek dramatist Aeschylus, the truth is said to be the first casualty of war. Perhaps the same can be said in times of economic crisis, which some have likened to a state of war. Certainly, one could safely say that accuracy has taken a severe battering during the Greek crisis. And, if accuracy is compromised then it is quite likely the truth will also be mangled.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano (AEB) | When can the ECB raise rates? According to the interest rates futures market, there is a 50% probability of an additional 10 bp cut at the July 22 meeting and a 90% probability at the December meeting. We shall see.
The aversion to risk has reached such a point that the German 10-year government bond yield has moved into negative territory for the first time in its history. The bund is one of the most sought after safe-haven assets, which has caused its yield to plummet to -0.02%. The only advantage of negative interest rates is that they might force Germans to reconsider their investment habits.
“Monetary stimulus is driving European sovereign debt towards irrational levels which are no reward for the risks involved and make any correction phases more dangerous,” say analysts at Intermoney.
Julius Baer Research | | Marketplace companies active in the Sharing Economy such as Uber and AirBnB (both not listed) are combining social networks, Big Data analytics and mobile accessibility. Last week, the European Commission (EC) issued guidelines to harmonise the often wildly different treatment faced by businesses trying to shake up sectors ranging from accommodation to transport across the Eurozone.
via Macropolis | The successful completion of the first programme review and the subsequent decision of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to disburse a 7.5-billion-euro bailout tranche are expected to trigger a number of important developments for Greek banks.
On Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) began to buy corporate bonds (CSPP). Assuming that the ECB purchases 7 billion euros a month, the rise in the amount of “available” bonds in circulation in the European corporate fixed income market could be around 70 billion euros from now until year-end, according to Afi.
James Alexander via Historinhas | While still waiting for the 1Q16 official Eurostat NGDP figure for the Euro Area of 19 countries it has been interesting to have a look at the implied deflators for the currency bloc and its constituents. (Ireland, Slovakia, Cyprus and Luxemburg are all hopelessly late delivering GDP figures, and the first two don’t even seem to do it to Eurostat standards for calendar-adjusted data.)
The European Central Bank (ECB) will today begin its corporate debt purchasing programme (CSPP). This means it will acquire, via approximately 12 national central banks, investment grade debt issued by companies. Spain could benefit from this programme to the tune of nearly 60 billion euros.