In Europe

corona vaccine

The Vaccination Process Against Covid-19: Between Fear And Hope

“The slow vaccination process and the fear of a lagged recovery will continue to cause a reduction in risk assets,” say analysts at Link Securities, although it is true that “sooner or later, vaccination will take effect and one must be positioned for the day after,” say the experts at Intermoney. Between both feelings, the Covid-19 vaccination campaign is one month since it started in the EU. Figures are still far from the rates needed to achieve the immunization objectives. Spain would have to multiply by 5.6x the current rate of daily doses administered.


coronavirus susto

Third Wave Of Coronavirus Jeopardises European Growth Prospects

The unstoppable spread of the pandemic is currently hitting Portugal and Spain with particular severity. And it has been worsened with possible delays in the production of vaccines, both by Pfizer and Astrazeneca, thus jeopardizing the pace of deliveries and the vaccination schedule in Europe. At the same time, the short term is being complicated on the continent by the increase in the number and depth of restrictions. These are weakening the prospects for recovery in the first part of the year.


ECB night

Despite ECB’s Boost, Banks Tighten Credit Conditions Amid Fears About Debtor Solvency

This week the European Central Bank published the latest edition of its “Eurozone Bank Lending Survey” with 4Q20 data showing the need for continued generous support from the central bank. Despite the measures implemented by the ECB, the logical fear of banks about the solvency of their debtors explains why the conditions for accessing bank credit are tightening. In 4Q20, credit conditions for households eased, but not in the case of companies, considering that both areas were severely deteriorated in 3Q20. 


Merkel Laschet

Angela Merkel, A Chancellor Difficult To Replace

Lidia Conde | Over the weekend in Germany, the CDU elected Angela Merkel’s replacement as head of the party. They bet on continuity with the election of the moderate Armin Laschet. For the first time in Germany’s history, the person who occupies the chancellor’s office is leaving voluntarily. And she does so with the respect and recognition of her opponents and successors, both in the CDU and in the government.


Snapshot of European financial sector' structure

Has Deflation Returned To Europe?

Azad Zangana (Schroders) | November 2020 was the fourth consecutive month that headline inflation for the eurozone – using the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) – was negative. The response to the coronavirus pandemic has caused the most severe economic shock across the continent since the Second World War. Temporary factors are to blame for current negative inflation rates, but low inflation is expected to keep interest rates very low for years to come.


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Turkey-Still Solid Activity In 4Q20

Ali Batuhan Barlas (BBVA Research) | Industrial Production (IP) grew by 11% yoy in cal. adj. terms in November, confirming a growth level in the first 2 months of 4Q20 (9%) similar to the strong 3Q20 performance (8.5%). We expect GDP growth to materialize near 5% in 2021, benefiting from a sizable contribution from external demand


EU Budget the CAP beyond 2020 1073x480 1

Will Portugal’s EU Presidency Protect Agricultural Producers?

European Views | Tensions over agricultural policy have been building steadily since November, when Frans Timmermans, the Vice-President of the EC, and one of the leading figures in the European Green Deal, questioned whether the €258.3 billion (in constant prices) budgeted for the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) and €90 billion for the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) were fully compliant with the European Green Deal and EU climate targets as they stood.



China EU trade deal 1

EU-China Trade Agreement Equivalent To “Phase 1” Deals With The US

After seven years of negotiations, the EU and China announced the trade agreement that will seek to boost new and lucrative opportunities for companies on both sides. The deal is the most ambitious China has ever  reached with a third economic bloc in terms of market access, fair competition, and sustainable development, said  EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.


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What To Make Of The EU-UK Trade Agreement

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | I haven’t read the 1,246 pages of the EU-UK trade agreement, so I’m going to rely on trusted sources to make sense of the accord. For example, David Allen Green of the Financial Times argues the trade agreement leaves much unchanged. The Joint Partnership Council, alternating between Brussels and London, will be able to make binding decisions without the involvement of lawmakers. So much for UK “independence”.