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fake news

European politics 1st January 2021

Five Tools We Need To Fight Disinformation

Miroslava Sawiris | According to the GLOBSEC Trends 2020 report, across Central and Eastern Europe, 34% believe that COVID-19 is a hoax designed to manipulate populations. With hundreds of deaths around the world occurring as a result of disinformation related to the coronavirus, the pandemic has demonstrated the critical importance of limiting the impact of disinformation on our societies. Yearly profit generated by disinformation websites come to $235 M, estimates the Global Disinformation Index.

Fiat Peugeout

European economy 29th December 2020

The EC Approves With Conditions The Birth Of Stellantis, The Merger Between Peugeot And FCA

Banca March | The European Commission has given the green light, with conditions, to the merger of Peugeot with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles after the commitment on the part of both manufacturers to adjust their activity in the sector of small commercial vans. The union of the two firms meant they would control about a third of that market, more than double its immediate competitors. The deal will give rise to the fourth largest car manufacturer in the world by units sold and a stock market value of over €40 Bn.

BrexitDeal

European politics 28th December 2020

Brexit Christmas Eve Gift: A Deal “In Extremis” And Decaffeinated, But A Deal

After 47 years of membership in the EU and 1,645 days since the British citizens voted their way out, finally early in the afternoon of the 24th, negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost reported on the agreement on the conditions of exit and their new commercial relationship, which amount to near €900 Bn annually. This last minute deal avoids one of the biggest risks facing the Eurozone in recent years, but it is “vague in many aspects” and “both parties will force specific changes in the future”, say analysts.

European banks linda

European economy 26th December 2020

European Banks: Becoming More And More Utility-Like

Scope Ratings | The pandemic showed that in times of crisis, politicians, supervisors, and central banks are willing to extend significant help to the banking sector. No major European bank has come close to resolution this year; nor will any in the near future in our view. Credit markets took note. After an initial scare in March, senior spreads tightened close to pre-crisis levels. Our view is that banking is turning into utilities and that the sector is becoming what it should be: boring. 

academic experts consider what adoption of the 585-page draft Withdrawal Agreement would mean

European politics 24th December 2020

The EU and UK Agree a Brexit Deal

Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | The details of the deal will be digested by markets over the coming weeks, after traders have finished digesting Christmas lunch. Given the lack of fanfare over services provisions, the EU has likely retained the prerogative for equivalence recognition, importantly for financial services. If this is indeed the case this deal is at best a disincentive for investment in financial services in the UK, and at worst hangs a sword of damocles above the City and the wider economy.

comisioneuropeaTC

European economy 23rd December 2020

Brussels Says ‘No’ To The Creation Of A Bad Bank

The European Commission is concerned about the management of NPLs after the impact of the pandemic and the economic slowdown in the Q4. However, Brussels is reluctant to create a bad bank, mainly because of the high costs of creating a European agency to manage these assets. Instead, the EC proposes to reform the insolvency and debt recovery regime, with the aim of unifying legislation at European level. At the same time, making it easier for banks to get rid of doubtful assets on their balance sheets.

Exports

European economy 22nd December 2020

Eurozone Trade Surplus Grows By 10.3% In October To €30 Bn

The positive trend in the euro area trade balance increased in October by 10.3% year-on-year, reaching 30 billion euros, according to data on international trade in goods published by Eurostat. By items, exports of goods from the euro area to the rest of the world contracted by 9%, to 199.3 billion euros. The fall was offset by a sharper decline in exports, which fell by 11.7%, to 169.3 billion euros. Commercial activity amongst the euro members fell by 6.8% in the tenth month of the year, to 166.1 billion euros.

brexit

European politics 19th December 2020

What Are Australian-Style And Canadian-Style Brexit Trade Deals?

David Collins via The Conversation | The terms “Australian-style” or “Canadian-style” Brexit are meant to convey to the British public the kind of trade relationship they can expect with the EU if no preferential free trade agreement (FTA) is concluded between the UK and the EU at the end of the transition period. They are a short-hand way of telling the public that it is perfectly normal not to be a member of the EU or Single Market, because both Australia and Canada manage this and remain functional and amicable trading partners with the EU. 

The “R” club is recruiting

European economy 17th December 2020

Sharp Rise In Public Debt: Will The Euro Area Resist?

Adriá Morrón Salmerón (CaixaBank Research) | The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a sharp increase in debt. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, public debt ratios have risen suddenly and significantly to almost unprecedented levels (the historical precedents are closely linked to major wars). For instance, in Italy and Spain a jump of +25 pps of GDP is expected in just one year, whereas it took five and three years, respectively, to amass a similar increase after the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

 

Does the new ECB's Purchase Programme result into a more volatile basis between bond credit spreads and CDS premia?

European economy 16th December 2020

The ECB’s Partial Lifting Of Dividend Veto Leaves Pay-Out 40%-50% Below Pre-Crisis Distribution

The Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank yesterday agreed to lift the veto on banks’ dividends. However, it is urging them not to distribute more than 15% of accumulated profits in 2019-2020, nor exceed 0.20 points of the CET1 capital ratio. From both options they have to choose the lesser one. The measure will be in force until end-September 2021, when it will be reviewed to see if it can be lifted in light of the economic situation.