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World economy 21st June 2020

COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Have Real-World Consequences

Gary Buswell | Conspiracy theories seem to be a staple of major global events, so it’s no surprise that COVID-19 has become the biggest hotbed for unfounded “alternative narratives” since 9/11. Various theories are circulating across social media, sucking in a worrying number of high-profile public figures who seem willing to share disinformation without checking the facts, even though these narratives have little basis in reality and are not supported by any credible experts or academics.

ILO OIT

World economy 20th June 2020

The International Labour Organization Was Founded After The Spanish Flu – Its Past Lights The Path To A Better Future Of Work

, via The Conversation | The fraying fabric of the global order was ill-prepared for a pandemic. As the focus now shifts from health to wealth amid the ensuing economic crisis, the World Health Organization (WHO) will cede the stage to other international bodies tasked with steering a course through the current turmoil and recovery to come. Enter stage left the International Labour Organization (ILO), a sister body of the WHO and the very first specialised agency of the United Nations.

investment banks

Markets, World economy 18th June 2020

Will The US Risk Rally Endure – And Can Cyclicals Continue To Lead?

Mona Mahajan (Allianz GI) | With equities rallying more than 30% since late March, driven most recently by cyclicals, financial markets were perhaps due for a period of consolidation. New risks could emerge, but we continue to believe in the ongoing economic re-opening story — so cyclical sectors may remain market leaders in the near term. Markets could be supported further as elevated levels of cash are put back to work.

covid19 dilemma

World economy 17th June 2020

The COVID-19 dilemma: mobility and economy

CaixaBank Research | The differences between countries in the severity and duration of the lockdown measures at the beginning of the year have been reflected in the declines in GDP in Q1. In Q2, the epicentre of the pandemic (and the lockdown) has moved from China to Europe and America, which will result in unprecedented declines in economic activity in the major advanced economies.

oil

Markets, World economy 15th June 2020

The Oil Rally Continues

Darwei Kung (DWS) | The oil rally continues. On the supply side, OPEC and Rus-sia reached an agreement to extend the June production cap into July instead of implementing the planned scaling down of cuts. This is perhaps a sign that the major produc-ers are conscious of the oil market’s fragility despite the recent rise in oil prices. Large inventory overhangs support that fear. On the demand side, the re-opening of economies across the globe has brought significant optimism, even though the amount of realized demand that has emerged give little support for it.

US markets

In the World, World economy, World politics 15th June 2020

The Gap Between The US Stock Market And The Real Economy Has Increased Sharply Due To Covid19

Last week there were sharp falls in the stock markets (-4%/-5% in Europe, -6%/-7% in the US), with the biggest drops since March. In a context of a significant disconnection between prices and fundamentals after the sharp rises from the March lows, which were discounting an unlikely “V” recovery, these downward moves seem logical. Also the upward excesses, which until last week were the protagonists. Our correspondent in Washington, Pablo Pardo, analyses this stock market and economic chaos.

european tourism

World economy 14th June 2020

How Important Is International Tourism To The Global Economy?

James Reilly (Schroeders) | Tourism contributed 10.4% to global GDP in 2018; however, with many countries worldwide currently operating travel restrictions, the sector is now facing serious challenges. Scenarios produced by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) point to a fall in international tourist journeys of between 58% and 78% for 2020. Such an outcome could potentially see 100-120 M direct tourism jobs at risk in what is one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the global economy.

5g

World economy 13th June 2020

5G Is Going To Change The World

Andy Budden (Capital Group) | The impact 5G will have on a wide range of industries is likely to be bigger than we’ve seen with any previous generation of mobile telecoms. Each previous new generation of network has produced a big jump in speed. And we will certainly see this with 5G, which is estimated to be between 10 and 100 times faster than 4G. But 5G is about much more than quicker phone downloads.

V L W recovery

World economy 11th June 2020

The Fed And The OECD Have Doubts About The V-Shaped Recovery Discounted By The Markets

Santander Corporate & Investment | The Fed does not expect the economy to fully recover until 2022 and expects GDP to fall by 6.5% and unemployment of 9.3% in 2020. The OECD also distances itself from V-shaped scenarios and warns of the worst peacetime recession in 100 years. In scenarios without second waves of Covid-19, the OECD anticipates a global contraction of 11.5% in H1’20 and neither does it expect world GDP to approach the pre-coronavirus level by end-2021.

carbon emissions1

World economy 7th June 2020

From Flattening the Epidemiological Curve to Flattening the Carbon Emissions Curve?

Citi GPS | As Earth day celebrated its 50 th anniversary on April 22, 2020, the coronavirus pandemic was inadvertently slashing global carbon emissions so much that they could be down 4-9% YoY for 2020 as a whole, on n the recommended path to achieve climate goals. After Covid-19, some of the drop in oil demand may be longer lasting, keeping carbon emissions lower, notably for aviation.