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The economic cold war between the US and China is here to stay

World politics 6th March 2019

The Economic Cold War Between The US And China Is Here To Stay

The prospect of a settlement to the conventional elements of the trade war is helping sentiment. As discussed by Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, it is in everybody’s interest to settle the tariff issue. However, the policies aimed (perhaps quixotically) at trying to limit Chinese growth, are very much still on the table. The issues over Huawei are perhaps the most visible aspect of this, but it does introduce a level of policy-dependent idiosyncratic risk for portfolios.

The year in which even Buffett did badly

World economy 5th March 2019

The Year In Which Even Buffett Did Badly

Manuel Moreno Capa | Making an attributable net profit of 3.542 billion euros is having a bad year? The answer is yes, although only of you are called Warren Buffet and these 3.542 billion euros earnt on 2018 represent a collapse of 91% over what you made in the previous year. Buffet cannot be very satisfied with these mediocre results of his investment flagship, Berkshire Hathaway.

Looking toward 2030: The Future of Aid

World economy 3rd March 2019

Looking Toward 2030: The Future Of Aid

A decade until 2030 looks like a long time, but not when the world is faced with crises on multiple fronts that require sustained action. IRIN, a website dedicated to covering humanitarian emergencies and aid, identifies 10 crises to watch in 2019, including “voluntary” returning of refugees, re-emergence of infectious diseases in countries experiencing humanitarian crises, anti-terror compliance imposed on NGOs, and continued militancy in Africa.

2.USeconomy

World politics 27th February 2019

Is The Next US Recession Close?

A recession is triggered when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters. One or two negative readings about GDP may make little sense. But when it is various key indicators which are beginning flash red for a prolonged period, the image becomes clearer and more significant. In opinion of D. Spence y J. Franz, this moment has still not arrived in the US.

US yield curve inverts

World economy 26th February 2019

The Chaos Of Negative Interest Rates

J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | There are structural factors driving down equilibrium interest rates at a global level. Beginning with the demographic factor, technical progress and also low productivity. As a society we are confronting a new historic era of low official interest rates and with downward pressure on interest rates in the medium and long term.

Is India the next battleground for China v US?

World economy 26th February 2019

Is India The Next Battleground For China Vs US?

Not everything is rallying this year. India is down, which is interesting as it is a perennial favourite with international investors. Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, is concerned “notably” concerned about the extent and composition of India’s growth compared to China as well as the fact that since 2013 the Chinese currency has depreciated 8% against the US Dollar while the Rupee has dropped 31%.

From El Padrino pizzas to the Federal Reserve

World politics 25th February 2019

From The Godfather pizzas to the Federal Reserve

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Donald Trump could nominate Herman Cain, an eccentric businessman who has accumulated various scandals and a questionable economic baggage, as a board member of the Federal Reserve. Cain is famous for having directed the El Padrino pizza chain and also for having been a senior executive at Burger King.

Commodities

World economy 24th February 2019

Commodities-A Phoenix Rising From The Ashes

Following the reopening of the US Government after its shutdown, the market has been operating without data from both the US Department of Agriculture and speculative positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Next report by Wisdom Tree covers a period of three months about commodity markets.

Banks need to rethink Cybersecurity

World economy 23rd February 2019

Banks need to rethink Cybersecurity

Shaun Riordan | Banks and other financial institutions are all too aware of the cybersecurity threat. They have lost millions in theft and fraud over the years. In response they have spent millions on technical measures to protect themselves, both perimeter and in depth defences. Such measures are necessary, but not sufficient.