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World economy 3rd January 2019

Stock Markets Skids, The Subsequent Panic And The Downwards Spiral, Ready For Sentence?

Miguel Navascués | Perhaps it will not be so serious, but stock markets are falling and trembling. What has happened? Is it the Armageddon expected for over a year? The Federal Reserve is withdrawing liquidity to quickly from the global system, as can be seen in the graph: 50 billion dollars a month in a heavily leveraged global system, too much, with excessive confidence in expectations that “this time it will be different”.

Markets, World economy 1st January 2019

Let’s Get Real About The Geopolitics Of 2019 Markets

Shaun Riordan | I have been reading a whole series of market forecasts for 2019. While it is relieving that at last they include political or geopolitical factors, I was struck by those factors, which could have dramatic impact on companies or markets which were left out, or misinterpreted.

World economy 28th December 2018

Lose-Lose Scenario For Europe From Ongoing China-US Negotiations

Alicia García-Herrero*| Without an expectation of a larger market for European exports in the absence of additional opening up by Chinese authorities, European exporters should not enjoy the ongoing China-US negotiations.

World economy 25th December 2018

Global Inequality Is On The Rise-But At Vastly Different Rates Across The World

Antonio Savoia via The Conversation | Inequality is rising almost everywhere across the world – that’s the clear finding of the first ever World Inequality Report. In particular, it has grown fastest in Russia, India and China – places where this was long suspected but there was little accurate data to paint a reliable picture.

World economy 22nd December 2018

Small Nations At Risk Of Becoming Casualties In China-U.S. Trade War

David Mahon via Caixin | There is an African proverb that states, “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.” Small nations will suffer considerable economic losses if they take firm sides with either the United States or China in the current trade war.

World economy 20th December 2018

COP24 Climate Talks had a ‘people’s voice’, but did anyone listen?

Aurelie Charles via The Conversation | When the broadcaster and naturalist David Attenborough launched the latest UN climate talks, COP24, he called for ordinary people to get involved, add their voice, and “take their seat”. A series of #takeyourseat videos were published, featuring people around the world discussing what climate change meant for them. This was a sign of something new at this COP.

World economy 20th December 2018

US Volatility Towards 2020

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Although the world’s prime economic power has grown for 114 consecutive months, Wall Street has spent the whole year in a saw teeth configuration. If stock market uncertainty was not enough, now fixed incomes have joined the chorus of anxiety. Since the summer, the yield curve has been flattening, in what appears to be the clearest sign of a recession in sight.

World economy 19th December 2018

US Monetary Policy: Pragmatism As New Guidance

Financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its federal funds target rate on Wednesday for the fourth time this year, by 25 basis points (i.e. between 2.25% and 2.50%). Looking ahead, the FOMC will likely revise its “dots” lower for 2019, while the Fed will emphasise data dependence as relevant for its policy stance, rather than guidance by FOMC ‘dots’.

World economy 13th December 2018

Winter Is Coming for China’s Property Sector

Lu Ting, Wang Lisheng, Wang Jing and Wendy Chen | China’s property market conditions could worsen significantly in the first quarter of 2019 before rebounding, and it will likely take Beijing longer than usual to come to the rescue. A number of entrenched nonmarket-based property policies — such as restrictions on home purchases, sales and prices — are key hurdles to making timely policy adjustments.

World economy 12th December 2018

OPEC Post-Mortem

Countries in the Declaration of Co-operation (DoC, also known as OPEC) met in Vienna last week and announced a 1.2mn b/d crude production cut from an October 2018 baseline. In the end, OPEC interests came out first, as expected, and the rest of the world came second.

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