The Role of Global Transformation
Jean Abi Nader via Fair Observer | The challenges of sustainable economic growth and meaningful employment are common throughout the Middle East and North Africa.
In the World
The US: Monetary Socialism
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | If in any country the word “socialist” is an insult, it is in the US of 2019. “Socialism” has become the war cry of the Republican party against the opposition Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, in large part because the media star of this party in the Congress, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, describes herself as a “democratic socialist”.
US Corporate Debt Could Be Underestimated
Despite the general deleveraging in the US, the corporate and non-corporate sector has begun to indebt itself again, currently to a level of 72.6% of GDP ($15 trillion). According to calculations of economists at the firm Solunion, the real level of non-financial corporate debt could exceed by 30%, or $3.9 Tr.
OCDE Scenario Particularly Negative And, If Fulfilled, Has Not Been Discounted By Equities
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has again downgraded global economic growth for 2019 to 3.3%. However, the most striking point was the strong downgrade of Eurozone GDP growth, which it now forecasts at only 1% when only a few months ago it was expecting 1.8%. Germany and Italy are the countries that emerge worse from this severe downgrade of growth.
The Economic Cold War Between The US And China Is Here To Stay
The prospect of a settlement to the conventional elements of the trade war is helping sentiment. As discussed by Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, it is in everybody’s interest to settle the tariff issue. However, the policies aimed (perhaps quixotically) at trying to limit Chinese growth, are very much still on the table. The issues over Huawei are perhaps the most visible aspect of this, but it does introduce a level of policy-dependent idiosyncratic risk for portfolios.
The Year In Which Even Buffett Did Badly
Manuel Moreno Capa | Making an attributable net profit of 3.542 billion euros is having a bad year? The answer is yes, although only of you are called Warren Buffet and these 3.542 billion euros earnt on 2018 represent a collapse of 91% over what you made in the previous year. Buffet cannot be very satisfied with these mediocre results of his investment flagship, Berkshire Hathaway.
Looking Toward 2030: The Future Of Aid
A decade until 2030 looks like a long time, but not when the world is faced with crises on multiple fronts that require sustained action. IRIN, a website dedicated to covering humanitarian emergencies and aid, identifies 10 crises to watch in 2019, including “voluntary” returning of refugees, re-emergence of infectious diseases in countries experiencing humanitarian crises, anti-terror compliance imposed on NGOs, and continued militancy in Africa.
Is The Next US Recession Close?
A recession is triggered when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters. One or two negative readings about GDP may make little sense. But when it is various key indicators which are beginning flash red for a prolonged period, the image becomes clearer and more significant. In opinion of D. Spence y J. Franz, this moment has still not arrived in the US.
The Chaos Of Negative Interest Rates
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | There are structural factors driving down equilibrium interest rates at a global level. Beginning with the demographic factor, technical progress and also low productivity. As a society we are confronting a new historic era of low official interest rates and with downward pressure on interest rates in the medium and long term.
Is India The Next Battleground For China Vs US?
Not everything is rallying this year. India is down, which is interesting as it is a perennial favourite with international investors. Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, is concerned “notably” concerned about the extent and composition of India’s growth compared to China as well as the fact that since 2013 the Chinese currency has depreciated 8% against the US Dollar while the Rupee has dropped 31%.