Pablo Pardo (Washington) | In global political and journalistic mythology, the word “impeachment” is loaded with meaning. In the city of Washington, where this curious political figure takes place, its importance is much less. In practice, the impeachment is no more than a vote of “no confidence” in the US President by the House of Representatives.
Brent oil prices are up more than 30% this year and have reached levels last seen in 2014. BoAML’s team on Commodities have revised up their forecasts; they now expect Brent to peak at $95/bbl by the end of 2Q 2019. They also consider the impact on global growth of an even larger and more sustained oil spike. Specifically discuss the factors that could drive oil prices to $100/bbl, and hash out the winners and losers.
Arek Sinanian | The longer we delay the actions we must take, the more difficult it becomes to avoid the doom and the human and economic costs of adapting to climate change.
Ofelia Marín- Lozano | In recent years, one of the most repeated commentaries when recommending investing in European stock markets tends to be: Why should invest in Europe when the US stock markets outperform year after year? In 22 years of history which coincide with the birth of the Euro Stoxx 50, for the first fourteen years the two markets moved almost in parallel. Only since 2011 can a clearly superior and sustained performance by the S&P 500 be observed.
The yellow metal fell 4% in the three months from the end of June — a decline that analysts at Wisdom Tree do not believe is justified by the 11 basis-point rise in bond yields and 0.4% gain in the US dollar over the period. Rather, gold’s poor performance seems to have been driven by a collapse in sentiment.
The rapid rise in US Treasury yields has led to concerns about the fundamental outlook for emerging markets (EM). In particular, investors fear that higher risk-free yields will translate into unsustainably high borrowing costs for EM companies. While analysts from Julius Baer acknowledge the headwind for the developing world, they also believe that perception is generally more negative than reality.
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | For the past 18 years (the entire 21st century), one of the strongest brands in modern industrial history, General Electric (GE), has been losing share value. In recent days — just before replacing its CEO — GE’s worth fell to about 20% of its peak market value in 2000
Caixin | After a decade of runaway credit expansion and regulatory loosening, the nation’s $40 trillion financial system is teeming with giants. Not only have China’s biggest financial companies kept growing bigger and more complex, but formerly little-known firms are now some of the largest on Earth.
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast in the October update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on the protectionist threat and the emerging markets situation. The Fund also reflects how those countries who confronted the last financial crisis with a better fiscal position were those countries who suffered smaller falls in GDP.