In the World

china economyTC

China inflation rebounds to 2.1% but still far from central bank’s target

Bankinter : Inflation rebounded three tenths to +2.1% in January (in line with expectations), but the fall in producer prices gained inertia (-0.8% vs -0.5% expected vs -0.7% previously). Analysis: The rebound in inflation is explained by the rise in food prices (+6.2% vs +4.8% previously) and the increase in demand, especially in leisure-related products and services after the lunar year. The decline in producer prices is good news because…


biodiversity

Almost half of world’s GDP depends on biodiversity (about $44 trillion)

Allianz GI: Biodiversity loss is an underestimated environmental problem of our time. How could investors benefit from investing in solutions based on protecting nature? The main key issues are: Food production has caused 80% of deforestation and 70% of terrestrial biodiversity loss.Land degradation has cost 10% of annual global GDP in lost ecosystem services.Currently, only 3% of global climate finance goes to nature-based solutions.Investments in ecosystem restoration generate on average…


money1

Expectations about role of the State may be frustrated by declining spending and decreasing government effectiveness

Agnieszka Gehringer (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute) | Governments are increasingly being given new tasks to achieve various economic policy objectives. Looking at the major eurozone members, this report shows that high expectations about the role of the state in solving the most pressing problems may be frustrated by declining productivity of public spending and decreasing government effectiveness. Public spending in the four large euro area Member States, Germany, France,…


china sculpture dragon house sky clouds

The positive spillover of China’s revenge outbound tourism

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The grand comeback in Asia is taking shape, but there is one missing piece. Although China, the world’s largest international travel spender, is still on its recovery path, it will eventually return to global prominence. Before the COVID pandemic, Chinese tourists had become an integral part of the global tourism sector with their spending share rising from 8% in 2010 to 16% in 2019. The…


US jobs

US labour market strength (unemployment 3.4%) hinders Fed’s roadmap

Bankinter: Non-agricultural job creation (January) reaches 517K vs 188K estimated and 223K previous. The unemployment rate stands at 3.4% vs. 3.6% estimated and 3.5% previous. Wages increase +4.4% vs. +4.6% previously (+4.3% estimated). Analysis: The data reflect the strength of the labour market, but may hinder the Fed’s roadmap. The future evolution of interest rates depends, to a large extent, on the evolution of inflationary pressures, including those coming from…


Jerome Powell

Powell’s dovish hints water down Fed’s stance

J.P. Marín-Arrese |  The Fed’s message was tough enough, warning that the hiking cycle will go on unabated, even if it loses some steam, until inflation comes fully under control. The markets expected the quarter per cent rise in the Federal funds would prompt Powell to offset such a slowdown with a hawkish performance. Yet, in the press conference, he provided enough dovish hints to send the stocks bouncing back…


euro new

Eurozone GDP rises 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q22 and 3.5% for whole of 2022

Singular Bank: In Q4, according to Eurostat, the euro zone’s GDP rebounded 0.1% from the previous quarter (vs. +0.3% in Q3). In year-on-year terms, output in the eurozone rose by 1.9%, compared with 2.3% in the previous quarter. Thus, in 2022 as a whole, GDP increased by 3.5% compared with 2021. By countries, France’s GDP in Q4, according to the Insee, registered a slight increase of +0.1% vs. the previous…


supermercadoTC

Personal consumption growth in Spain and US begins to slow notably

Personal consumption is Spain and the US has begun to slow down at a delicate moment in view of the demanding valuations in the credit market after January’s rally. In this context, and after a new warning from the UK flash PMIs, the second one came on Thursday. The country that accounted for most of the growth in employment in the EU during 1H22, Spain, saw its unemployment rate rise…


China shopping

China eyes consumption as main engine of growth

The Chinese government is looking to consumption as the “main engine of growth” for the Chinese economy this year, mainly as a result of the abandonment of China’s “zero covid” policy. Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, said this weekend that the consumption of the country’s 1.4 billion people is “a key step to expand domestic demand”.


Germany

Mild Winter Recession in Germany

ifo | “High inflation rates have driven the German economy into a winter recession.” This is how Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo, responded when Germany’s Federal Statistical Office reported that economic output in the fourth quarter of 2022 had fallen by 0.2 percent. The Federal Statistical Office had originally expected growth to be flat, based on provisional figures. “The usual definition of a recession is when gross domestic…