Moody’s HY default rate increased to 3.1% in April. In line with the progressive deterioration of the credit quality of companies globally. Moody’s published yesterday its monthly report where it states that there were 11 defaults in April so that, after the monthly record of 16 defaults in March (since December 2020), the balance in the first four months of the year amounts to 45 defaults. North America leads with…
Banca March: Activity accelerates in China, but at a slower pace than expected. The April set of activity indicators showed a rebound in growth, as industrial production accelerated to 5.6% while retail sales advanced 18.4%. Although these data are very positive and confirm that the reopening of the economy is boosting activity, they fell short of expectations (10.9% and 21% respectively). On the consumer spending side, the best performing components…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The strategic competition between the US and China started in early 2018 when the Trump administration implemented untargeted import tariffs and reoriented most of its trade efforts towards widening the technology gap between China and the US with a special focus on deep tech, such as semiconductors. The Biden administration has pushed even further in that direction. However, one should not forget that well before…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Australia’s FY2023-24 budget was slightly expansionary supported by an improved fiscal position. The underlying cash balance for FY2022-23 is expected to be a small surplus (+0.2% of GDP), the first surplus in fifteen years. Revenues expanded by +8.8% on the back of higher commodity prices and larger personal income tax from the resilient labor market.On the back of surging inflation, the Labor Government has launched…
BancaMarch : Official figures released on Friday were positive and job creation in April was high as the number of jobs increased by +253k, with the private sector accounting for 91% of job creation in the month and with the improvement in hiring extending to most sectors. On the less positive side, the figures for the previous two months were revised downwards by -149 thousand jobs. In addition to this…
BancaMarch | The International Monetary Fund today alluded to “uncertainty” around the direction of Japan’s monetary policy, saying a possible shift to ultra-low interest rates could have a significant impact on global financial markets. Krishna Srinivasan, head of the agency’s Asia-Pacific Department, also pointed to risks surrounding Asia’s economic outlook, such as weakening exports to advanced economies, slowing productivity in China and fragmentation of global trade.
Morgan Stanley | Crypto analyst Sheena Shah reviews the digital currency initiatives that central banks (CBDCs) are starting to put forward as an alternative to the use of cryptos. The use of cryptocurrencies for everyday payments is complex and expensive for the consumer and the ecosystem has not developed, except for in Switzerland. Companies such as Adyen have no plans to incorporate crypto payments into their offerings Their conclusions are…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Almost a decade has passed since President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), originally titled ‘One Belt One Road’. The BRI has since expanded into one of China’s most important tools for the build-up of soft power and the implementation of its overseas activities (Dadabaev, 2018). Simultaneously, however, the initiative has attracted controversy in the international media, particularly after…
Banca March | The healthcare giant has launched the spin-off and IPO of its consumer division – with products such as Frenadol, Nicorette, Neutrogena and Listerine – which it will call Kenvue and which it has valued at up to $43 billion. With this placement, which will happen within a few weeks, J&J plans to sell more than 151 million Kenvue shares at a price of between $20 and $23…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Japan has developed an unusual social consensus to raise wages, to protect people’s livelihood from rising inflation. With this background, the spring wage negotiation among major firms is expected to result in a rise of +3.8%, the largest increase in 30 years. However, subdued productivity gains at a macro level are expected to limit a sustainable wage increase in Japan. Because large firms have improved…