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Yeor of the Ox

In the World, World economy 4th February 2021

“Year Of The Ox” Symbolises China’s Strong Future

AllianzGI | This lunar new year, China has much to celebrate – including resilient economic growth, widespread success at suppressing Covid-19 and a steady transformation into an advanced economy. That’s why the ox is a suitable symbol for a country that continues to do the hard work needed to maintain its trajectory. Over the course of 2021, this economic strength may enable China to do something that other major economies haven’t been able to: ease back on the massive stimulus that the government is pumping into the economy.  

yuan dollar paperplane

In the World, World economy 2nd February 2021

China: Understanding RMB Exchange Rate Cycle

Jinyue Dong (BBVA Research) | From the regional peak if 7.167 in May 2020 till now around 6.477, RMB to USD eschange rate seems to have been entering into a one-way appreciation trend whit its accumulative appreciation for around 9.6%, gaining most of lost ground of the previous depreciation triggered by China-US trade war since 2018. Not only the RMB to USD spot rate, but also the RMB CFETS basket has displayed quite a similar pattern from 91.39 to around 96, accumulatively 5%. That means, CNY has not only outperformed USD, but also against a broader basket of currencies.

polarisation

World politics 31st January 2021

Political Polarisation: The Phenomenon That Should Be On Everyone’s Lips

Javier García Arenas (Caixabank Research) | Society has become notably more polarised in recent years. In the US, this manifests itself through a wider gap between the views of Republican and Democrat voters. In Europe, we have identified an increase in disagreements over fundamental issues such as immigration and European integration. Political parties have also become more polarised in advanced economies, most notably in the last decade.

Oil 1024x575 1

World economy 30th January 2021

How The Environmental Regulatory Pressure Will Affect The Oil And Gas Sector In 2021

Scope Ratings | The credit outlook for the integrated oil & gas sector has improved to stable from negative on improved price assumptions and companies’ decisive action to shore up their balance sheets last year. However, a weaker-than-expected economic recovery from the recession brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic and strategic challenges, such as tougher environmental regulation and peaking oil demand, are potential threats to credit quality. These are the main trends we expect for integrated oil and gas companies in 2021.

Washington silicon valley

In the World, World economy, World politics 29th January 2021

The Coming War Between Washington And Silicon Valley

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | According to the so-called ‘Bork Doctrine’, a company that has a dominant position in a market can benefit consumers. The Democratic Party has always been more reluctant to accept that thesis than the Republican Party. In recent years, that opposition has become tougher. So one would think that both for purely political reasons – to please the left wing of the Democratic Party – and for ideological principles – that opposition to the control of big business – Biden will not pass up the opportunity to trim the quasi-monopolies of the Internet giants.

IMF digital money

In the World, World economy 28th January 2021

Legally Speaking, is Digital Money Really Money?

By Catalina Margulis & Arthur Rossi (IMF) | Countries are moving fast toward creating digital currencies. Or, so we hear from various surveys showing an increasing number of central banks making substantial progress towards having an official digital currency. But, in fact, close to 80 percent of the world’s central banks are either not allowed to issue a digital currency under their existing laws, or the legal framework is not clear. 

consumption recovery 1

World economy 26th January 2021

Is Inflation Coming Back? Three Routes To Higher Prices

Keith Wade (Schroders) | Some investors are growing worried that inflation is set to rise. How worried should investors be? Is there something unique about the Covid-19 shock which makes inflation more likely? We can see three areas of concern that could be routes to higher inflation: it could already be higher, it is just not being measured properly; the build up of liquidity could represent latent demand translated into inflation and the adverse structural effect of Covid-19.

 

 

 

Jerome Powell

In the World, World economy 25th January 2021

FED: Upward Surprise To December’s Projections But Powell To Throw Cold Water Over Taper Talk

Attention will be particularly centred on the discussion of QE tapering. Previous comments by regional Fed members Bostic and Kaplan stoked markets into pricing in the possibility of bond market support fading by year-end. When combined with news of an additional $1.9trn fiscal stimulus package being floated in Washington, this resulted in rising 10-year yields, which has been one driver of the USD rebound witnessed at the beginning of this year. A quicker vaccination campaign being rolled out since December has also added to a brighter economic outlook, bringing the discussion of policy normalisation to the table.

art market

In the World, World economy 24th January 2021

The Global Art Market And Covid-19: Resilience In A Time Of Turmoil

S.Gyorgy, D.Picarda, F. Xydas and S. Wieting (Citi GPS) | The art market has remained resilient in 2020 amid the turbulence brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Rapid digitization in response to the crisis is laying the foundation for a deeper, more permanent shift as the industry adapts to changing preferences and demographics. Meanwhile, cultural institutions are addressing wider calls for social justice and taking steps towards greater inclusion.